TN Assembly Election '06

Chennai Today!

2006-05-14T20:24:00.000-07:00

Folks,

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Thank you, Chennai Today Team

Election 2006, A retrospective look!

2006-05-11T14:51:00.000-07:00

It looks all but certain that the DMK will form the next government in the state. It is expected to form a minority government with outside support from the Congress, PMK, CPM, and CPI. Karunanidhi will become the Chief Minister of the state for a record fifth time. In spite of it being a convincing victory for the DPA, it still was one of the closest elections in our state's history. For the first time in a long time, the ruling party is expected to face a formidable opposition.

Calculated Gamble

Taking a retrospective look at the 2006 elections, it certainly comes down to some bold gambles taken by Karunanidhi that paved the way for his party’s victory. First, when Vaiko left the DPA alliance, Karunanidhi was quick to limit the damage by offering large number of seats to his allies. Convinced that this would be a close election, he made sure that his allies were happy and worked for the victory of the DMK. Second, the DMK's manifesto was a big hit among the rural masses. The free color TV offer, along with the promise of providing rice at Rs. 2 per kg certainly hit the mark with the voters. Karunanidhi made sure in his speeches that he was able to convince the people that those promises would be kept.

Major Blunders

From the ADMK's perspective this election would not have been lost for it not had been for certain monumental blunders committed by its chief Jayalalitha. The first half of her administration was a disaster from a populist stand point. She revoked all freebies that our people were accustomed to for decades. She dismissed government employees without giving a second taught. She brought the controversial anti-conversion bill that was vehemently opposed by the Christians. While a majority people might have agreed with her decisions, those groups that were affected by these decisions made sure that she would be defeated. Even though she caught up some lost ground, it was too monumental a mountain to climb.

She also committed some crucial blunders during campaigning. First her promise of providing 10 kg free rice after weeks of ridiculing the DMK's manifesto made people perceive her as losing the battle. During the final stretch she kept making promises after promises that were not in her party’s manifesto and people simple lost trust in her. Secondly, there wasn't any synergy among her alliance partners. Unlike DPA where the parties were campaigning together, there wasn't a single joint meeting among her allies. Finally, her inability to get Vijaykanth into her alliance was a big setback.

An Alternative

For the first time in almost two decades, a viable alternative has emerged. The third front as many people choose to call it is finally taking shape. It’s none other than our Captain Vijaykanth's DMDK party. Just six months in politics, he has already made a mark. Not only did he win in the Vanniyar heartland of Virrudhachalam, his party managed to get a whopping 10% vote share. His support was not from caste or religious groups, but from people who want change. Vijaykanth is certainly a force to reckon with and all parties will now take him very seriously.

Winners & Losers

The biggest winner this election is the Tamil Nadu Congress party. While the local media always ridicules the party for its groupism, it has managed put up a great show. It won in 34 out of the 48 seats it contested. Note that this is the first time the Congress is going into an assembly election after the demise of its respected leader Moopanar. The biggest loser in this election is undoubtedly MDMK chief Vaiko. He made a big deal about DMK denying his party its rightful share. But, looking at the results it now looks like the DMK was offering him too many seats. He simply lost credibility among the masses. His personal attacks on Karunanidhi and his family were desisted by the voters of the state.

Finally

With this, our coverage of the 2006 Tamil Nadu assembly election comes to a close. Your support for our work has simply been terrific. In fact there were over 4,000 people that frequented our blog on Election Day. Sincere thanks to everyone. As a next step, we plan to continue blogging on a wide variety of topics. Besides politics, we also plan to cover movies, music, sports and science & technology. We will present all these topics with a focus on Tamil Nadu. So stay tuned!

Election Results

2006-05-11T09:10:00.000-07:00

Tamil Nadu

The DMK and allies have won the 2006 assembly elections. The alliance won 162 seats. The ADMK and allies managed to win 71 seats. In terms of vote share, the DPA alliance got 45%, and the ADMK led DPF alliance got 40%. Vijaykanth's DMDK party got 9% of the popular vote. The DMK is now all set to form the government in the state. The latest individual party tallies are as follows:

DPA - 162 (DMK - 93, Congress - 34, PMK - 19, CPM - 10, CPI - 6)

DPF - 71 (ADMK - 64, MDMK - 6, DPI - 1)

DMDK - 1

Pondicherry

In Pondicherry too the DPA alliance has registered an impressive victory. They have won 21 out the 30 seats. In terms of vote share, the DPA alliances got 50% and ADMK+ got just 27%. So expect a Congress led government to be formed in the Union Territory. The latest individual party tallies are as follows:

DPA - 21 (Congress - 11, DMK - 7, PMK - 2, CPI - 1)

DPF - 6 (ADMK - 3, PMC - 3)

IND - 3

Judgement Day - Verdict '06 (contd...)

2006-05-10T23:10:00.000-07:00

[12:37 am] Both the left parties, the CPM and CPI, have pledged outside support for the DMK. This will mean that DMK will try to form a minority government in the state. The PMK has also stated in its manifesto that it would provide outside support to the DMK government. M Karunanidhi is most likely to meet with the Governor tomorrow to stake claim to form the next government.

[9:10 pm] Among the prominant losers in this assembly election are Congress leader SR Balasubramaniam, ADMK Ministers Thalavai Sundaram, and Valaramathy, and Tamil Film Actor Nepolean, who lost the Mylapore assembly seat to SVe Sekar in a very close contest. Lok Paritran party floated by ex-IITians did remarkably well. S Vasudevan, who contested from Mylapore, polled an impressive 7,000 votes.

[8:47 pm] Jayalalitha has resigned as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu after her party the ADMK has been trounced by the DPA alliance in the 2006 assembly elections. Meanwhile, CPM has pledged to provide outside support for the DMK. This was conveyed to Governor SS Barnala by CPM state unit leader N Varadarajan.

[1:01 pm] All the trends for Pondicherry are in and the DPA alliance is ahead by a confortable margin. The DPA is ahead in 20 seats, where as the DPF is ahead in just 7 seats. PMC founder P Kannan has lost his assembly seat to the DMK. Chief Minister Rangaswamy is leading in his assembly seat. So a coalition government led by the Congress is expected to be formed in the Union Territory.

[12:52 pm] In the DPF alliance, the ADMK has established leads in 63 seats. Its allies, the MDMK is leading in 7 seats and DPI is leading in 1 seat. So, the biggest loser this election is Vaiko's MDMK which is leading in just 7 out of the 35 seats it contested. It has also not been able to transfer its vote bank to the ADMK.

[12:38 pm] The following is the break down in terms of leads for the DPA alliance: DMK - 93 seats, Congress (INC) - 35 seats, PMK - 18 seats, CPI - 7 seats, and CPM - 7 seats. The half way mark in the TN assembly is 117 seats. So the DMK is pretty close to that mark.

[12:31 pm] The victory margin for M Karunanidhi in Chepauk was 3000+ votes where as ADMK chief Jayalalitha won by 16,000+ voters in Andipatti. DMK deputy general secretary and former mayor of Chennai, MK Stalin has won from the Thousand Lights constituency. He categorically stated that DMK chief Karunanidhi will be the next Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.

[12:24 pm] It now appears that Tamil Nadu might have its first ever coalition government. Eventhough, the DMK led alliance is comfortable ahead, they will not be able to win an outright majority. However, DMK can count on stable support from the Congress and the Left parties and should be able to complete a full 5 years in government.

[12:09 pm] DMK chief M Karunanidhi and ADMK chief Jayalalitha have won from the Chepauk and Andipatti assembly constituency respectively. Also DMDK chief Vijaykanth has won from the Viruddhachalam assembly seat. However, PMK leader GK Mani is trailing in Mettur. Meanwhile, a break up of vote percentages in 104 assembly seats has the DMK led alliance getting 46% votes, the ADMK led alliance getting 42%, and DMDK getting 12%.

Judgement Day - Verdict '06 (contd...)

2006-05-10T21:43:00.000-07:00

[11:55 am] Online portal Rediff has the DMK alliance leading in 160 seats and the ADMK alliance leading in 71 seats. Vijaykanth is the lone candidate leading for DMDK. In Pondicherry, it now appears that the DPA alliance is ahead. NDTV has DPA leading in 14 seats while ADMK is leading in 4 seats.

[11:34 am] In Pondicherry, ADMK+ is leading in 10 seats and DPA in 3 seats. Former Chief Minister Vaithilingam has won, but DMK's Janakiraman has lost his seat. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Rangaswamy is facing a tough battle.

[11:21 am] The trends from all the 234 seats are now available. The DMK alliance is leading in 150 seats and the ADMK alliance is leading in 80 seats. Others are leading in 4 seats. A few results have also been released. Ministers D Jayakumar and Pannerselvam has won from Royapuram assembly segment. Meanwhile, Manoj Pandian (ADMK) has lost his assembly seat.

[11:13 am] The latest leads according to NDTV is that DMK+ is ahead in 152 seats and ADMK+ is ahead in 76 seats. Meanwhile, New Indian Express has the DMK+ leading in 142 seats and ADMK+ leading in 84 seats. CNN-IBN Live has DMK+ leading in 150 seats and ADMK+ leading in 79 seats. So far the exit poll predictions have been very accurate.

[10:47 am] Peter Alphonse is now leading. Former assembly speaker PTR Palanivel Rajan is leading in Madurai. Vasanth Kumar, Congress candidate for Naguneri assembly seat, is also leading. The latest trends from Indian Express have DMK+ leading in 135 seats and ADMK+ leading in 89 seats. According to NDTV, DMK+ is leading in 142 seats and ADMK+ is leading in 79 seats.

[10:35 am] NDTV has DMK alliance leading in 135 seats and ADMK alliance leading in 81 seats. ADMK alliance is leading in all seats in the Coimbatore region. Where as the DMK is sweeping the deep south in the Kanyakumari district. The exit polls are proving to be pretty accurate this time around.

[10:28 am] ADMK's candidate Bader Sayeed is now leading in Triplicane. In Thondamutur, SR Balasubramaniam is leading M Kannapan. Former MP Peter Alphonse (Congress) is trailing. Also PH Pandian's son Manoj Pandian (ADMK) is trailing. In Mylapore it looks like a neck to neck race with a slight lead for DMK candidate and film actor Napolean.

[10:17 am] Conflicting reports are emerging for Pondicherry. NDTV reports that DPA alliance is in the lead, while New Indian Express and online portal Rediff report that ADMK alliance is leading. The Hindu has Chief Minister Jayalalitha ahead in Andipatti, while O Pannerselvam is trailing in Periyakulam assembly segment.

[10:07 am] The ADMK alliance is leading in 3 seats in Pondicherry. The DPA alliance is leading in 5 seats. So looking at the early trends, it looks like the Congress led DPA alliance in the Union Territory might not win a big majority as was expected. While in Tamil Nadu, DMK continues to lead. Its alliance is leading in 138 seats, and ADMK+ is leading in 77 seats. Others are leading in 10 seats.

Judgement Day - Verdict '06

2006-05-10T20:34:00.000-07:00

Folks, I am sure all of you are eagerly waiting for the results of the 2006 Tamil Nadu assembly election. In a few hours from now, results will start coming in from the counting centers. We will be updating you with live results from a variety of news sources. So stay tuned!

[9:57 am] Other candidates who are also leading include DMK deputy general secretary Ponmudi, Vishnu Prasad son of TNCC president, Durai Murugan, and former chief minister O Paneerselvam. The break down of leads in the DPA alliance is as follows: DMK is leading in 63 seats, Congress in 21 seats, CPM in 8 seats, and PMK is leading in 7 seats. This certainly proves that PMK has lost its influence among the members of the Vanniyar community.

[9:48 am] As per the latest trend, DMK+ is leading in 110 assembly constituencies, and ADMK+ is leading in 63 seats. Others are leading in 4 seats. SV Sekar is leading in the Mylapore assembly segment by a slender margin. ADMK is also leading in Park Town. The latest trends according to NDTV is that DMK+ is leading in 114 seats, and ADMK+ is leading in 71 seats. DMDK is leading in 1 seat and others in 2 seats.

[9:36 am] Among those leading in their respective constituencies are DMK chief Karunanidhi, his son MK Stalin, DMK general secretary Anbazhagan, Arcot Veeraswamy, and minister Jayakumar. DMDK chief Vijaykanth is leading in the Viruddachalam assembly segment. Those trailing include Jayalalitha's friend Badar Sayeed, and minister Valarmathi.

[9:30 am] The New Indian Express has DMK alliance leading in 105 seats and ADMK alliance leading in 56 seats. The CNN IBN live now has DMK+ leading in 114 seats, ADMK+ leading in 64 seats and others leading in 7 seats. NDTV has DMK+ leading in 101 seats, ADMK+ leading in 53 seats, and others leading in 2 seats. So according to the trends, it looks like DMK is all set to form the next government.

[9:22 am] According to NDTV, DMK alliance is leading in 81 seats and the ADMK alliance is leading in 42 seats. DMDK is leading in 2 seats. Early trends for is also Pondicherry emerging. The INC and ADMK are leading in 1 seat each.

[9:11 - 9:15 am] The latest individual party positions are as follows: DMK - 29, ADMK - 18, INC - 7, CPM - 3 and MDMK - 2. The current lead positions according to DD News is that the DMK+ is leading in 76 seats and ADMK+ is leading in 42 seats. Others lead in 6 seats. The latest trend from New Indian Express is DMK is ahead in 51 seats, the ADMK is ahead in 30 seats and others in 3 seats.

[9:02 am] The new trends as per CNN-IBN live indicates that the DMK+ is leading in 30 seats, and the ADMK+ is leading in 15 seats. others are leading 2 seats. According to DD news, DMK+ is leading in 48 seats, the ADMK+ is leading in 27 seats and others in 5 seats.

[8:53 am] CNN-IBN live has DMK+ leading in 10 seats and the ADMK+ leading in 6 seats. The DMDK is ahead in 2 seat.

[8:49 am] According to the early trends, the DMK+ is leading in 5 seats and the ADMK+ in 1 seat.

Exit Poll Analysis

2006-05-09T14:07:00.000-07:00

With just one day left before the votes are officially counted, I taught it would be a good time to analyze the results of the exit polls that were conducted yesterday. An impressive 70% of the people voted in yesterday's election. Normally, a high voter turnout is never good for the ruling party since it implies a vote for change. Moreover, people were less inclined to give the ADMK led government another chance. According to the CNN-IBN poll, just 39% of the voters wanted to give Jayalalitha's government another chance, where as 54% wanted it removed from power. This certainly doesn't bode well for ADMK or its alliance partners.

Clash of Personalities

An interesting statistic from the CNN-IBN poll is that Karunanidhi has overtaken Jayalalitha as the favorite choice for Chief Minister. Since, in Tamil Nadu its always a clash of personalities this is another huge setback for the ADMK alliance. Also according to exit poll, about 10% of the people pick Vijaykanth as their choice for Chief Minister. This is a remarkable achievement for the film actor. He polls significantly higher than MK Stalin, the heir apparent of the DMK party and son of Karunanidhi, who gets a meagre 1%.

DMDK Factor

One of the confusions in this election is the effect of Vijaykanth's DMDK party. The exit poll gives the DMDK party a 10% vote share. In its earlier opinion poll, he got just 5%. This time around no statistics as to whose vote share he eats into is provided. But, in their earlier poll Vijaykanth's had 49% of his votes coming from the DMK and about 20+% coming from ADMK.

Caste Factor

DMK has a lead among almost all caste groups. This is certainly surprising. The DMK even has a small lead among voters from the dominant Thevar community, who normally vote overwhelmingly for the ADMK. As expected, DMK lead is most significant among Christians and Muslims. It looks like even the repealling of the controversial anti-conversion bill didn't seem to have too much of an impact. This time around, even the upper caste vote goes to the DMK. The arrest of Jayendra Saraswati might have been the reason for this.

The route of PMK & MDMK

The biggest losers of this election are expected to be PMK and MDMK. The DMK's alliance with PMK didn't seem to help it too much in northern Tamil Nadu. In fact, the ADMK provides the strongest resistance to the DPA in the north, normally a strong hold of the PMK. But an even bigger loser might be Vaiko's MDMK. It was his departure from the DPA that was expected to make this election close. The MDMK was expected to help ADMK route the DPA alliance in the south. That certainly didn't happen. Expect the MDMK to win just a couple of seats out of the 35 odd seats it contested.

But, one must not forget that exit polls have never been accurate in Tamil Nadu. While they have usually been able to pick up the trend of the election, their forecasts have always been far off from the actual results. But for the moment it certainly looks like advantage DMK. Stay tuned for live results on May 11th.

Election Day

2006-05-08T08:04:00.000-07:00

A record 70% of the 4.63 crore eligible voters exercised their franchise today for the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu. Barring a few small incidents, voting was by and large peacefull in all the 234 assembly constituencies. Both Jayalalitha and M Karunanidhi expressed optimism of winning the elections and forming the government on their own.

Exit Poll Predictions

[Update #1] The Star News - AC Nielsen Poll predicts a big win for the DMK led DPA alliance. The exit poll predicts the DPA front will win about 175 seats and the ADMK will win in 51 seats. In terms of vote share, 48% goes to the DMK led alliance and 37% goes to the ADMK led alliance.

[Update #2] Official CNN-IBN Exit Poll numbers are expected to be released at 9:30 pm IST.

[Update #3] M Karunanidhi emerges as the most popular choice for Chief Minister according to the CNN-IBN Poll. He gets 41% while his arch-rival J Jayalalitha gets 35%. Interestingly, Vijaykath gets a spectacular 10% while Karunanidhi's son MK Stalin gets only 1%. This certainly is huge for the DMK. In all the previous opinion polls, Karunanidhi has been trailing Jayalalitha by atleast a few percentage points.

[Update #4] An Exit Poll conducted by Times Now TV channel & Hansa predicts a win for the DMK alliance. According to their survey, the DMK led DPA alliance is expected to get 150 seats, while the ADMK led DPF alliance is expected to get 81 seats.

[Update #5] The CNN-IBN Hindu Exit poll also predicts a comfortable win for the DMK alliance. They predict the DMK alliance to win between 157-167 seats and the ADMK alliance in 64-74 seats. The poll expects the DMK alliance to get 45% of the popular vote, while the ADMK alliance will get 35% votes. The DMDK party polled an impressive 10% of the popular vote. Things must be pretty gloomy in the ADMK camp with exit poll after exit poll predicting a comfortable win for the DMK.

[Update #6] The ADMK government was viewed favorably by just 39% of the voters. 54% of the voters rate it unfavorably. Also DMK had solid backing among men, and old people. It also looks like the DMDK had managed to cut significantly into the ADMK vote bank.

[Sincere thanks to Karthik Guruswamy for the live updates]

Stay tuned as we bring live election results on May 11th.

Opinion Poll

2006-05-06T18:19:00.000-07:00

So campaigning for the 2006 Tamil Nadu assembly election has finally come to an end. Voting will take place in two days time. In order to capture the pulse of the voters we decided to conduct an opinion poll.

We also take this opportunity to thank all of you for visiting our blog. Also stay tuned as we bring live results when the votes are counted on May 11th. So don't miss it!

It's your turn. Please vote

2006-05-06T04:16:00.000-07:00

In about 10 minutes from now, the campaigning for the polls would stop. And after the storm that has captivated Tamil Nadu, there is going to be silence for a day and a half.

Elections, like movies, are most wonderful things. And in Tamil Nadu, where the line between the two are blurred, it has been everyone's pleasure to follow the elections.

Most of you would have decided whom to vote for. Some of you might still be toying with that question. In any case, do get out and vote. Please. It is not a question of whether politicians will ever change, or will ever make things happen. It is your democratic right, and responsibility.

My best wishes to all political parties in Tamil Nadu!

DMK's Ultimatum

2006-05-05T20:09:00.000-07:00

Every time an election is held in the state, it has had some repercussions at the center. It must be recollected during the last assembly election, PMK decided to walk out of the NDA alliance after it decided to align with ADMK. This election is no different. The DMK, an important member in the UPA government at the center, has sounded off an ultimatum that it would quit the central government if Vaiko's MDMK continues to be part of the UPA alliance. Karunanidhi made this clear during his interaction with the local media yesterday. He had earlier hinted about this when Vaiko quit the DPA alliance, but at the time the Congress party didn't take him too seriously. The support extended by the DMK is crucial for the survival and stability of the UPA government. In recent weeks during campaigning, Vaiko has been particularly critical about the UPA government. So in all likelihood he is likely to be expelled from the alliance or MDMK might walk out of the alliance on its own.

Free PCs, says ADMK

2006-05-05T08:33:00.000-07:00

Over the past week, there have been rumours that ADMK was going to announce a brahma astra during the very last leg of the campaign. On this, the penultimate day of campaigning, the ruling party has announced a free personal computer to anyone who passes the Standard 12 exams in the state this year.

Both the alliances have reached a stage where the economics of their promises are better not argued upon. I do not know the exact number of students who sat for the exams. Let's say that number is 4 lakhs. Assuming a 70% passing rate, we are looking at about 3 lakh computers, each costing 10000 rupees. That's 300+ crores, this year alone!

An old Tamil saying reads: mullai mullaal thaan edukkanum, i.e. a thorn in the flesh can be removed only by another thorn. Wonder what Amma might say if she unable to fulfil this promise: "I promised PC. But PC (the FinMin) says no money. So, no PC!"

Prime Minister campaigns for DPA

2006-05-04T16:42:00.000-07:00

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday campaigned for the DPA alliance in Tamil Nadu. Addressing an election meeting on the Island grounds in Chennai, Manmohan Singh urged the people to vote for the DMK led DPA alliance for better economic development and communal harmony in the state. In his twenty minute speech, Mr. Singh was more focused on the achievements of the UPA government at the Center in promoting economic development in the country. Meanwhile, DMK chief Karunanidhi, who also participated at the meeting, said his party, was not after power but rather to protect self respect and Tamil culture. He attacked the Jayalalitha led government as being autocratic and said that the state has failed to achieve economic development during its rein. Union Ministers GK Vasan and Dayanidhi Maran were also present at the election meeting.

Battle for Pondicherry - An Analysis

2006-05-04T16:17:00.000-07:00

Like in Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry is witnessing a battle between the DPA and the DPF fronts. The alliance partners are the same in the Union Territory as in Tamil Nadu. But, there is one big difference. The Congress is the dominant party in the DPA alliance. The Congress party has led successive governments in the UnionTerritory and is quite formidable on its own strength. This election, the Congress is contesting in 16 seats. The DMK also has a strong presence in the Union Territory. They are contesting in 11 seats, while the PMK is contesting in 2 seats and CPI in 1 seat.

On the other hand, ADMK has formed an alliance with P Kannan led PMC, MDMK, DPI, and JD(S). While the ADMK is the dominant partner of the coalition, Kannan has a strong following based on the performance of his party in the previous election. However, his constant switching of parties might have affected his credibility among the masses.

So based on the combined arithmetic of the DMK and Congress, one would expect them to safely form the next government. Also like Tamil Nadu, there isn't any anti-incumbency against the government. People seem to be quite happy with the performance of Chief Minister Rangaswamy. So a Congress led coalition government is likely to emerge in Pondicherry.

Karunanidhi's Interview with IANS

2006-05-03T19:59:00.000-07:00

Q: You sought votes in the 2004 general elections saying it was your last election. Why you are back seeking votes?

A: I find myself still hale and hearty and can serve the people effectively for some more time. So why should I not contest again? I am sure the people will understand.

Q: What are the issues in these elections? In earlier elections corruption of the Jayalalitha government was a major issue. But this time the perception is that she has done well on the development side and has also tackled the tsunami relief satisfactorily.

A: Corruption is still an issue and we will expose her (Jayalalitha) thoroughly before the public. Recently a 102-acre land was allotted to a Singapore consortium at a ridiculously low price. We were planning to make this public, but Jayalalitha came to know about it and held an urgent cabinet meeting to cancel the allotment. (Smiles) The Singapore party is now planning to go to a court. As far as the tsunami relief is concerned, the less said the better.

Q: You have announced measures like rice for Rs.2 a kg and free TVs. How are you going to implement them?

A: Would we talk about things that are not possible to achieve? If we plug the loopholes, this could be done easily.

Q: Your party is always against coalitions and Tamil Nadu has never had one so far. Now that you are contesting just 130 seats, how do you hope to get a majority on your own?

A: Although we are contesting fewer seats, I am hopeful we will win a majority. Our allies will also do well. Our coalition should dislodge the anti-people government. Even if we don't win, she (Jayalalitha) should not win (he says with a twinkle in his eyes).

Q: Your party does not have any other chief ministerial candidate. Your critics say that if you win, you may install your son Stalin as chief minister.

A: I am not going to die tomorrow. Anyway why should I nominate my successor? When Annadurai (former chief minister and party's founder) died he did not nominate me although he had hinted that I should succeed him. The others in the party took note of that and made me the chief minister.

Stalin has been in public life for quite some time. After the 2004 general elections the Congress leaders suggested that he should be made a minister but I refused. Did not Rajaji's (C. Rajagopalachari) son become a MP?

Q: Who is supporting Jayalalitha?

A: Brahmins of this state want her to come back. They are solidly behind her.

Q: Where are the Brahmins? Most of them have left the state and are living aboard?

A: The Brahmins still have an influence and they think if Jayalalitha comes back they will rule.

Q: Did Sonia Gandhi consult you before she decided to resign from Lok Sabha?

A: No, she did not. She took us by surprise. However, I think her sacrifice will go down well with the people.

Campaign Climax

2006-05-03T19:46:00.000-07:00

Just three days remain before the end of campaigning for the 2006 assembly elections. Both parties are frantically trying to win over voters with last minute promises. The focus of the two main campaigners, M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalitha, for the next couple of days is going to be Chennai. Both of them returned yesterday to Chennai where they would wind up their respective campaigns. Karunanidhi will hold a large rally with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Union Ministers of the State. Meanwhile, Jayalalitha will hold campaign rallies throughout Chennai for the next couple of days. It certainly promises to be an exciting finish.

Advani campaigns in Tamil Nadu

2006-05-02T17:53:00.000-07:00

Former Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani campaigned for the BJP in the state. Yesterday, he addressed an election rally in Aranthangi constituency in the Pudukottai district. Advani addressed the gathering in English which was translated in Tamil by BJP MP S Thirunavukkarasar. It must be recollected that BJP is contesting this election largely on its own strength. While it doesn't fancy its chances in most places, one place where it is fairly strong is in the Aranthangi assembly constituency. This is because of Thirunavukkarasar, who won the seat a record six times. He wields considerable clout in the region. His hand picked nominee managed to retain the seat in the last election, when he was in alliance with the DMK front.

Your Opinion

2006-05-02T17:24:00.000-07:00

Some people have already been speculating about what the future holds for the two prominent parties in the state, the ADMK and DMK.

During an interview with NDTV, Chief Minister Jayalalitha evaded questions regarding the future of the ADMK. I would like to know your views as to what will happen to the ADMK after Jayalalitha. Will a formidable leader emerge or will the party mark a slow death?

Similarly, DMK will have to look for an alternative leader. This will be perhaps the last time DMK chief Karunanidhi will be contesting an election. With his age catching up with him, what do you think the future holds for the DMK? Will his son MK Stalin emerge as the undisputed leader of the party and mark a smooth transition after Karunanidhi or will there be turmoil in the party after Karunanidhi?

Your comments...

Jayalalitha's Thanga Vettai show

2006-05-01T17:46:00.002-07:00

Adding to the growing list of untenable promises by the Dravidian parties, Chief Minister Jayalalitha today promised to give free four grams of gold "mangalsutras" to girls from the Below the Poverty Line (BPL) for their marriages, if the ADMK was voted back to power. However, she did not provide any details how the scheme will be funded. She also rejected the idea of formation of a coalition government in the state. She categorically stated that ADMK would form a government on its own. With only a few days left before the end of campaigning, both the ADMK and DMK have been making daily announcements of populist schemes in a bid to capture power. It would be very interesting to see how many of these promises will be eventually kept...

Vaarisu arasiyal

2006-05-01T08:09:00.000-07:00

While parties in the ADMK front, especially the MDMK, are campaigning heavily against vaarisu arasiyal -- running a party from within a family, some wonder what might become of the ADMK after Ms Jayalalithaa. Sreenivasan Jain of NDTV caught up with the Chief Minister and asked her the same question.

NDTV: What about some of the criticism that's made of you that you are a very autocratic leader? You're not allowing the second rung of leadership in the AIADMK to come up?

Jayalalitha: That is not true. It's not true at all.

NDTV: Who is the second rung? One never sees anyone else. It's always you.

Jayalalitha: When the time comes a leader will emerge.

The text of the full interview is here. (via Kaps)

The Hindu, on Tamil Nadu

2006-04-30T03:56:00.000-07:00

The Sunday edition of The Hindu carries an excellent analysis of the probable outcomes of the TN Assembly polls, by Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Kumar. Based on the findings of the Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll, the psephologists predict that "no one party is likely to get a majority on its own".

Whereas that may sound like deja vu (or deja entendu), the possible outcomes given vote swings makes interesting reading. It may be recalled that the Hindu-CNN-IBN poll gave the ADMK combine a vote share of 46% and the DMK combine 44%. Based on this, the former will win 118 seats and the latter 110. A simple 2% swing in favour of the ruling party would net it 40 more seats - a comfortable majority. An additional 2% swing (which, I think is unlikely) would mean an additional 30 seats.

On the other side, a swing of 2% in favour of the DMK and allies would sweep them into power with a tally of 146. And they can reach 170 with a 4% swing.

I think the Hindu-CNN-IBN poll was the earliest, and it might have not captured in full measure "the alleged wave" in favour of the DMK, after Kalaignar announced some pretty interesting sops and freebies. As it stands, one is tempted to think that the DMK is slightly ahead in this neck-and-neck race. However, given the fact that even small vote swings can alter the outcomes at the hustings, this race is, to borrow a term from psephologists themselves, "simply too close to call".

ADMK's AIFB problem - An Analysis

2006-04-29T18:46:00.000-07:00

One of the problems that the ADMK must overcome to win this election will be to limit the vote share of the All India Forward Bloc (AIFB). AIFB is now headed by Tamil film actor Karthik and is contesting independently in about 62 seats this election (It earlier planned on contesting in 72 seats). The AIFB receives good support from the dominant Thevar community. This community voted overwhelmingly for the ADMK party in the previous elections, but this election it could be different. The reason for this is Karthik himself hails from the Thevar community and has a strong following within the community. Moreover, ADMK is now in alliance with the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI). A rivalry exists between the Dalit and Thevar communities in southern TN. This could result in loss of votes for the ADMK. A few days back during campaigning, Karunanidhi made a reference to this issue. The ADMK on the other hand has tried to play hard ball with Karthik faction of the AIFB. A number of AIFB candidates have been pressurized to switch over to the ADMK and not contest the election. A few others who refused to budge were threatened. With elections this close, ADMK seems to take no chances with the AIFB, but it remains to be seen if the damage can be curtailed.

Deccan Chronicle-AC Nielsen Opinion Poll

2006-04-29T17:23:00.000-07:00

To add to the growing confusion among voters, the results of another opinion poll were released yesterday. This one was conducted by the Decaan Chronicle and AC Nielsen. The survey gives a waffer thin advantage to the ADMK. The survey predicts the ADMK led DPF alliance will get 48% of the popular votes and the DMK led DPA will get 47%. The DMDK will get about 4% of the total votes, majority of which comes from people in the 18-35 age range. The survey found that a majority of the people where extremely happy with the performance of the Jayalalitha government over the last 5 years. Overall, even though different surveys have been predicting different alliances to emerge victories, the percentage difference in vote share between the two major alliance in all the polls have been extremely small. This clearly leads to the conclusion that we will end up with a hung assembly.

ADMK+ - 48%

DMK+ - 47%

DMDK - 4%

Advantage DMK: Week / C-Voter Opinion Poll

2006-04-28T16:44:00.000-07:00

News magazine 'The Week' in conjunction with C-Voter released an opinion poll for the forthcoming assembly election yesterday. They predicted victory for the DMK led DPA allaince. According to the forcast, the DPA alliance is expected to get between 130-138 seats and the ADMK led DPF alliance is expected to get 87-95 seats. In terms of vote share, the DPA is expected to get 45% of the popular vote and the DPF 42%. According to the survey, more people prefer Karunanidhi to Jayalalitha as the next Chief Minister. People also don't believe Vaiko's switch from the DMK to ADMK alliance will have any great impact. I am not sure about the track record of previous Week / C-Voters opinion polls. But, the results of this survey look realistic. The results seem to indicate strongly that for the first time ever there will be a coalition government in the state.

DMK + - 130-138

ADMK+ - 87-95

Others - 5-13

The Chief Ministerial Debates

2006-04-27T20:45:00.000-07:00

Just a thought...

During the US Presidential elections, the two main candidates face off in three pre-election debates. This gives each candidate to explain his position and policies. The incumbent can defend his administration's actions, and extol his achievements, whereas the challenger can point out the shortcomings. The debates are televised and attract a huge audience, and offer the viewing public a chance to evaluate one candidate vis-a-vis the other.

I'm wondering why not we have such debates in India. Of course, the Parliamentary elections throw up a new candidate each time, so it may not be possible. But in a state like Tamil Nadu, where the hanging chads point one way or the other, a debate featuring the supremos of the two fronts is technically possible.

Recently, I had posted a campaign speech of the Finance Minister, Mr. P. Chidambaram, in which he had alleged that the Tamil Nadu Government had claimed very little of the actual money allocated by the Centre, but was it cribbing that funds were not allocated sufficiently. In response to this, a reader had questioned the timing of this allegation, asking why the FM had not responded to the State Govt's accusation, and why he chose the campaign plank to rake up the issue. If the Government and the Opposition (or their respective leaders) could indulge in an open televised debate outside the Assembly, such allegations can be sorted out.

The point here is that while each leader reels off accusations, the other parties need not respond to those accusations directly. This would, however, be necessary in a live debate. Without doubt, the leaders of the two fronts, Ms Jayalalithaa and Mr Karunanidhi are the tallest campaigners in the state. A live face-off between the two off them? Just the thought is mouth-watering!

Constituency Watch - Thondamuthur

2006-04-27T17:18:00.000-07:00

Two political heavy-weights, SR Balasubramaniam (Congress) and M Kanappan (MDMK) are squaring off against each other in the Thondamuthur assembly constituency located in the Coimbatore district.

Both candidates have been Union Ministers in the past. SR Balasubramaniam is currently the floor leader of Congress party in the TN Assembly. In the last election, he became a MLA from Thondamuthur constituency winning by a convincing margin of 28,000 votes against VR Sunkanya of the DMK. M Kanappan is currently the treasurer of the MDMK. He was earlier Member of Parliament from the Tiruchengode parliamentary segment and served as Union Minister in the Vajpayee Government.

Interestingly, both the candidates are not natives of Thondamuthur. SR Balasubramaniam is expect to face anti-incumbency because of his lackluster performance as a MLA of this constituency for the past 5 years. Moreover, inter-party rivalry between various factions in the Congress will affect his prospects. Kanappan however doesn't have any such problems. He can expect the backing of the rank and file of the party. However, he would need the complete backing of the ADMK to emerge victorious from this constituency. Given the high-profile nature of the contest many leaders of both the parties have been campaigning here. Barring any dramatic developments in the next few weeks to election, the outcome of the election is expected to be very close.

Personality Watch - S Ramadoss

2006-04-27T16:53:00.000-07:00

One of the most important power players in TN politics today is the PMK founder S Ramadoss. Ramadoss was a doctor by profession before he decided to plunge into politics. He enjoys considerable support in the Vanniyar community, a dominant caste in the northern parts of TN especially in Chennai, Tiruchi, Salem, Cuddalore, and Kancheepuram districts.

His outfit the PMK has always had a violent past. In fact his rivalry with DPI founder Thirumavalavan is well known. However, the two have patched up since. In the recent past, Ramadoss has also had clashes with big wings in the Tamil film industry. His denunciation of Rajnikanth prior to the release of film 'Baba' is well known to all. In spite of all this, Ramadoss still enjoys considerable clout. This is because of the concentration of his supporters in key swing districts.

His equation with Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha has always been mixed. Ramadoss has switched sides between ADMK and DMK on numerous occasions. This election, Ramadoss's PMK is contesting as part of the DMK led DPA alliance. His party is contesting in 31 seats. With a close election on the cards, Ramadoss is likely to play a crucial role in the formation of the next government.

Your Opinion

2006-04-26T20:03:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, the Indian Express came up with a startling revelation that Union Minister Dayanidhi Maran tried to misuse his official position by trying to persuade the Tata Group into adding SUN TV as a partner in the Tata-News Corp DTH joint venture. Also what is more startling is that fact that Dayanidhi Maran demanded that Tata Group give SUN TV a huge concession. DTH connectivity is crucial to SUN TV for maintaining its leadership. Given that elections are so close and with the fact that the ruling ADMK led DPF alliance is trying to use role of SUN TV as a key election issue, do you think this might blow up into a huge controversy and affect the election prospects of the DMK?

49-O - the right to not vote

2006-04-26T08:33:00.000-07:00

Over the past few weeks, 49-O has been in the lips of many. The concept of casting a null vote, though being publicised now, is not a new one. The Election Commission of India's website reveals that such a thing has been in existence since 1961.

Here is the procedure. Suppose you decide not to vote for any of the candidates in the fray, you can visit your polling station, and when your turn comes, you can walk up to the election official stating your intent to cast a null vote. You have to fill out a form and sign the register. And walk out!

The relevant section of the EC's Guide for Voters (PDF link) is as follows:

The homepage of the Election Commission has many more informative documents, that are worth a perusal.

Murasu Symbol allotted to DMDK

2006-04-25T16:47:00.000-07:00

The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kalagam started by Tamil film actor Vijaykanth was allotted the "Murasu" symbol by the Election Commission. It must be noted that DMDK has been pressing the Election Commission for quite sometime now for allotting the Murasu symbol. The allotment of the symbol should come as a relief for Vijaykanth since there are at least three candidates with the same name contesting as independents from Viruddachalam assembly constituency. Else where, the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI), which is contesting as part of the ADMK led DPF alliance, has been allotted the "Bell" symbol.

Sonia campaigns for DPA

2006-04-25T16:31:00.000-07:00

Congress President Sonia Gandhi campaigned for the DPA alliance in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. She addressed a gathering at the Island grounds in Chennai sharing the dais with DMK chief M Karunanidhi. Sonia launched a blistering attack on the Jayalalitha led government and asked the people to remove the autocratic regime. She also highlighted the achievements of the UPA government at the center. She also thanked the people of TN for voting decisively for the UPA alliance in the previous Lok Sabha elections. For his part, Karunanidhi spoke highly of the great sacrifices Sonia Gandhi has made in the past. He was also critical about the ADMK government at the state and told voters that this election was a battle between "autocracy and democracy". Sonia Gandhi also addressed a campaign meeting at the Uppalam grounds in Pondicherry. Chief Minister N Rangaswamy and senior leaders of the Congress in the Union Territory were also present.

[Picture courtesy of Newstodaynet]

On the campaign trail: Vijaya T Rajendar

2006-04-24T23:00:00.000-07:00

Given the nicknames he has been given, with regard to his hairstyle, Vijaya T Rajendar (formerly T Rajendar), I must have named this article as On the campaign prowl. Sun News carried a live campaign speech of TR, which I watched only for a short while. The rhyming dialogues were there. Here's one...

Vaiko, nee DMK-va suththi irundha naagam Kalaignar kaaladiye nee oru kaagam (something ending with sogam, dhaagam, yogam etc.)

Vijay Ramachandran was more fortunate, and he's put up an impressive list of dialogues (link) from TR's speech.

Vaiko Nee Oru Psycho Nee Engayavadhu Poyiko Mothathila nee oru poi(lie)ko Jayalalitha romba adamantu Mudinja nee (Vaiko) vitu paaru statementu Mudiyadhu, en endral adhu avanga judgementu (not to give Vaiko a seat) Adhu dhan neenga potta agreementu Vechukaadha nee en kita vambu En payan peru Simbu Villu ku theva ambu Vaanam Vasapadum, adha thoda embu Kalaignar a nee ennikum nambu.. Naan vaazhndhadhu illa thanmanatha vithu En endral suyamariyadha enoda sothu Silambarasan na pethedutha muthu Avan nadicha padam peru 'Kuthu' Udaya Suriyan chinnatha paathu paathu nee vote a kuthu!!!

Well, TR is DMK's answer to the bevy of stars on the other front!

Is coalition government inevitable?

2006-04-24T20:03:00.000-07:00

A couple of days back during campaigning, DMK chief Karunanidhi surprised even his own party men by saying that the DMK was open to the idea of a coalition government in the state. This is for the first time, leaders of either of the two major fronts spoke about a coalition government in the state. It must be recollected that not a while back, former TNCC chief EVKS Elangovan was made to publicly apologize for his remarks supporting the idea of a coalition government. It looks like now both Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha are bracing themselves for a coalition government in the state. With opinion polls predicting a fragmented verdict, the two leaders have no choice but to acknowledge the reality. The coalition experiment has never been tried in Tamil Nadu since every of the previous election had a decisive verdict. But it looks like finally we have reached a situation where coalition government in the state looks inevitable.

S Vasudev (Lok Paritran) interview with rediff.com

2006-04-23T18:24:00.000-07:00

Was starting Lok Paritran an impulsive decision, or a move planned for quite a while?

It was not an instantaneous decision. A group of us – some in America, some in India – had been discussing the state of the country for quite a while. All of us in the US wanted to come back to India eventually. Essentially, the decision to start Lok Paritran came about because we wanted to do something for the country.

There are certain things we decided are very important before doing anything on any scale. We have to take care of things like public health and education which, according to us, are very basic issues. When we did social work, we tried to set up health camps.

When conscientious people want to do something for the country, what they do is social work. But you people chose to plunge into politics…

We found that whenever we tried to do something in a big way, we ran into two problems -- both relating to the political system. Either you have to change certain laws to get things done, or you actually run up against the political system. For instance, this person from Rajasthan was digging wells. He was beaten up and there were a number of hassles created for him. Tanmaya, our President, was thrown in jail for two days with no charges specified. That was just because he was conducting health camps, and got too popular in the area for local bigwigs to approve. All these factors together made us realise that we have to be in the system. You cannot be in one area and leave another aside.

Getting into the political system is quite different from doing social work though.

Yes, it is quite different. But we have planned a lot. And, we are not being too hopeful. A lot of us have worked at the grassroots level, and have met a lot of people. What I see as stumbling blocks in the Indian system is the implementation of ideas. So, our major thrust will be in providing a corruption-free government and making it more efficient.

Compared to the existing political parties that have money and muscle power, are you not being very idealistic? Are you aware of the ground realities involved in the political system?

Most of my friends have a very good idea of what happens at the ground level. As for me, I was studying in the US for quite some time.

Is this assembly election a bit like testing waters for Lok Paritran?

We have found that we are getting a lot of support, and many people are responding to us. So, it has become much more than testing waters. We have a serious opportunity and a serious responsibility.

How hopeful are you about your chances in this election?

I would rather not think about this election too much. But if we do our campaign in the right way, we have a good chance. If, as we suspect, people are looking for a change, we have a chance. A lot depends on the people we are targeting. In the last elections, only 41 per cent voted, which is a drop of around 16 per cent. If we could bring those people who have stopped voting to the polling booths, we can succeed. We are trying. I have spoken to students, the youth, and found them very responsive. A lot of them have not voted; either they are first time voters or non-voters. This is the segment that is attracted by our profile.

Many understand that we are not after power. If that was the case, I would have stayed in the US and taken a job for $50,000 a year, leading to $300-400,000 a year. They understand that you don't leave all this and come back for power. It is for an ideology.

After the elections, will you be here irrespective of the results? Or will you go back to work in the US?

We will be here because we have long-term plans for the next 15 years. We want to have significant power at the centre in the next 15 years so we can do what we do. We are a national party. We will set up bases in many places in India. Then, we go to the next elections. We have the Gujarat elections coming in 2007. We have set plans for the next 5-7 years.

What about livelihood?

We are getting support and will continue to get support.

Advantage DMK: Loyola College Poll

2006-04-22T11:45:00.000-07:00

Yet another poll was released last week. The poll was conducted by the Visual Communication Department of the Loyola College from April 5th to the 15th in about 122 assembly constituencies. This poll found that the DMK front enjoyed a slight advantage over the ADMK led DPF alliance. The survey indicated that DMK alliance will poll 44.5% of the popular vote and the ADMK alliance will poll about 40.1% of the votes. The survey also concluded that Vijaykanth led DMDK alliance will register an impressive 12.3% of the total votes. However, the survey found that more people predicted that the ADMK alliance will win the elections. Just like the Thuglak poll, I am skeptical about the results of the poll especially the figures indicated for the newly formed DMDK party.

"Sattre vilagi irum, pillaai"

2006-04-21T09:41:00.000-07:00

On the campaign trail from the DMK-led alliance, the Congress' number one campaigner, P Chidambaram was at his trailblazing best in his just-concluded speech in Cuddalore. The Finance Minister reeled out statistics to rubbish the TN Government's claims that the Centre was least helpful when calamity struck the state.

Mr. Chidambaram stated that a sum of Rs. 5025 crores had been allocated for the state, of which a major portion still remains unclaimed. For example, the State Government was to have claimed reimbursements for houses built for tsunami victims. Yet, not a penny has been claimed so far. The FM opined that this implied that the Jayalalithaa government hadn't built a single house to rehabilitate a single victim.

Quoting from Gopalakrishna Bharati's Nandanaar Charitram, the FM had just four words for the incumbents -- sattre vilagi irum, pillaai! (According to Nandanaar Charitram, Nandanaar, a person born of a low caste, was refused admission into a Siva temple. Overcome with grief, he stood outside the shrine to catch a glimpse of Lord Siva. However his view was obstructed by the Nandi, and Nandanaar sang, requesting to Nandi to stay aside to help him get an unobstructed view.) Mr. Chidambaram mentioned that Amma's government was like a Nandi which obstructed the implementation of any good plans formulated for Tamil Nadu at the Centre.

He also questioned the logic behind the ADMK's promise of 10 kilos of free rice, and wondered how Mr. Vaiko who threw tantrums at the DMK's election promise of rice at Rs 2 per kg, suddenly found logic in the ADMK's claims.

The Jayendra factor

2006-04-21T04:18:00.000-07:00

In general, the ADMK garners the lions' share of Brahmin votes (i.e. if the BJP isn't in the fray). The DMK doesn't do too well with them, for obvious reasons. However in the upcoming elections, the ADMK should find itself no better placed than any other party in winning votes from this community.

The reason? The incarceration of the head of the Kanchi mutt, Jayendra Saraswati. Across the Hindu community, opinion has been divided as to whether the Government was right in sending the pontiff to jail. Despite the divided opinion, most people believe that this was an act of vendetta on the part of the Government. And this doesn't augur well of the ADMK.

In a constituency like Mylapore, which has a predominant Brahmin population, the ADMK would not find the going that easy. Jayendra's arrest being on the major events during Amma's rule, it would weigh heavily on the voter's mind.

Probably the ADMK is now thinking, it would have been better had they kept politics out of religion, for now, they are finding it tough to keep religion out of politics...

Your Opinion

2006-04-19T20:32:00.000-07:00

This past week one of the hot topics has been giving away freebies, more importantly subsidizing rice. Various parties have come up with their own announcements. The DMK started out with the promise of 1 kg rice at Rs. 2 in their election manifesto. To match this, Jayalalitha yesterday promised 10 kg of free rice every month in addition to the normal 10 kg of rice at Rs. 3.50 per kg. Not to be left behind, the newly formed DMDK has promised 15 kg of free rice in its manifesto. None of them have detailed any plan as to how they plan to implement their promises and where the money will come from. Such being the case, I would like to know from you whether these promises will have an impact on these elections and if you think such schemes will be feasible and beneficial to our state? Your comments.....

Campaigning reaches fever pitch

2006-04-18T16:09:00.000-07:00

With less than 3 weeks remaining for the TN assembly election, campaigning has reached fever pitch. With opinion polls predicting a neck-to-neck race, both alliances are desperately vowing voters with offers of free rice, color TV etc. In fact, Jayalalitha after initially ridiculing DMK's promise of 1 kg rice at Rs. 2 has come out with a promise of rice at Rs. 1.75 / kg. Karunanidhi for his part has been trying to overcome people's skepticism of his promise of free color TV. Vaiko, the enemy turned friend of Jayalalitha has been critical of "family politics" of Karunanidhi and has attacked his promise of free color TV as an effort to promote SUN TV. Another politician making tours around the clock is Vijaykanth. According to the latest polls, his new party the DMDK has been able to poll a sizable number of votes. His campaign revolves around the promise of a better alternative to the DMK & ADMK in the state.

Advantage ADMK - Thuglaq Poll

2006-04-18T15:49:00.000-07:00

Tamil magazine Thuglaq published the results of their opinion poll earlier this week. According to the survey, the ADMK alliance will capture 60% of the seats. The survey was conducted in 100 constituencies. The survey found no anti-incumbancy against the Jayalalitha led government. People surveyed were extremely happy with the relief work carried out by the government during the recent floods. The survey also found that the Vijaykanth factor playing a role in the northern districts. The actor was able to wean away supporters of PMK and DMK into his fold. The survey also predicted that Vaiko's entry into the ADMK front didn't have a great impact. However, his campaigning has boosted the morale of the ADMK cadres.

[Note] I personally don't offer much credence to any survey conducted by Thulaq since its chief editor Cho is actively involved in politics and has lent support to the ADMK this election. Having said that I still decided to publish the results to keep the viewers of this blog informed.

T Ramamurthy's interview with rediff.com

2006-04-18T15:43:00.000-07:00

Were you dissatisfied with the way the Congress was moving?

My contention was that the Congress in Tamil Nadu was losing its identity. There is no political identity to the party now. The Tamil Nadu Congress is known for its self-respect. Even the split in 1969 was based on self-respect because the state Congress was not properly recognised by the All India Congress Committee.

You mean the disintegration began way back in 1969?

Yes. Until Kamaraj was around, the Congress in Tamil Nadu had an identity and self-respect. It is only in Tamil Nadu that Indira Gandhi could not succeed because the entire Congress stood by Kamaraj. Six months or so before Kamaraj died, Indira Gandhi began negotiations with him to bring all Congressmen together under her. Fortunately of unfortunately, he died before this could materialise. I must say that Indira and Rajiv Gandhi understood the situation in Tamil Nadu to a great extent, and could help the party grow…

But, among the southern states, it is in Tamil Nadu that the Congress is weakest. It always has to piggyback on a Dravidian party during the elections…

The split in 1969 went very deep and, unfortunately, except for Kamaraj, all other leaders stood by Indira Gandhi – C Subramanyam, Azhagesan, Bhaktavatsalam…All the party workers stood by Kamaraj though. That means the leaders had no links with the cadres in Tamil Nadu. After Kamaraj, the two Congresses -- Congress (O) and Congress (I) – merged, but the fight within the party continued. It was taken advantage of by the Dravidian parties; then there was only the DMK.

You were also a senior leader with the party.

At that time, I was not…

But you were later the TNCC president.

The problem is it is only the people at the helm of affairs who decide these things. I became president only after G K Moopanar left the party. Till then, I was only a general secretary, Rajya Sabha member or Lok Sabha member. I had my limitations.

But as a Congressman, could you not raise your voice?

As a Congressman, I was always fighting for our self-respect. That is why they are against me. They don't want people who try to establish themselves and assert themselves.

Why is it that the All India Congress Committee does not want the party in Tamil Nadu to grow?

They are keen on getting only a few Parliament members. It is easier to get a few members from here with the help of a Dravidian party. Even if their share is less, the partners will also support them at the Centre. So, as far as the Congress in Delhi is concerned, it is only the 39 parliament seats from Tamil Nadu that really matter. For that, they want to cajole the DMK or AIADMK.

Why was the AICC against you?

In my case, I was not against the alliance; I wasn't even worried about the numbers. The Congress is almost written off in the northern districts of Tamil Nadu, which command about 124 seats in the assembly of 234 seats. Even in the south, those who have been supporting the Congress are being neglected.

Like?

The Thevars, Nadars and many other communities. It looks as if the Congress has been giving itself up and running into the hands of very few people who dominate the state economically, caste-wise and socially. Altogether, the Congress has become a party of vested interests.

What was the AICC's reaction when you tried to tell them this?

They could not understand the realities, and were not willing to listen. They live in a dream world.

What kind of dream world?

Their feeling is, why do we bother about this? We have the government at the centre. And they enjoy all pleasures whenever they come here. They behave as if they are the royal guests if they come from Delhi as AICC members and speak Hindi! And they are treated that way by those managing the show here.

Do you feel that till the AICC continues to thrust people on the state, the party will not grow here?

No, it will never.

Are you not seeing it even now?

All political parties in Tamil Nadu released the list of their candidates several days ago, but not the Congress. Even Sonia Gandhi was not in a position to release the list. What is the fight going on in front of the AICC office and at Satyamurthi Bhavan [the state headquarters]? The cadres roaming the streets of Delhi are abusing AICC office-bearers. What are the charges against them? Right from taking money, to everything [else]. Whether it is true or not, that's the way it is. Your own cadres, your own people are saying this.

You mean those who are at the top cannot understand those at the bottom?

Their needs are different. They want the central government at any cost, for their own purposes. They are getting that by supporting the DMK. So, it is a question of appeasing the DMK at the cost of your own party. I feel there is no Congress left here, only an opportunistic one. I have been a fighter and I know Congressmen will stand with me to fight.

You were for an alliance with the AIADMK, were you not?

The situation here is a DMK alliance versus an AIADMK alliance. When I thought of the AIADMK, it was friendless. There was no party to support them. The Congress has been subjected to the dictatorial attitude of the DMK, and state leaders like [G K] Vasan preferred it that way. They want to project Karunanidhi and the DMK at the cost of the central government. It is I who said this was wrong.

I felt the Congress could preserve its self-respect if it allied with the AIADMK. I was demanding an alliance government in the state. Unless we prove ourselves, nobody will give you respect. I tried for power sharing with the hope that the self-respect of the Congress would be restored.

But the AIADMK was not in favour of sharing power, was it?

They were not ready to share power. They were not ready to ally with my Congress party either.

When did you meet Jayalalitha?

I didn't ask for a meeting. The chief minister sent information that she would like to meet me. I met her only as a Congressman, not after I started my party. I was expelled from the party only after I met her. I was expelled for having met her, for speaking on Jaya TV. Those were the charges against me. Those are the words used against me in the letter sent to me. That I met the chief minister, and gave an interview to the press that has disturbed the DMK alliance. I hadn't said anything against the Congress leadership. I had only asserted the rights of the party, but it was not taken in the right spirit.

After starting my party, she has not called me.

Where do you think the TNCC will go after the elections?

That Congress will slowly be wound up. It will die soon because you see only rowdies at Satyamurthi Bhavan. There is no leader to control the party. Delhi is not in a position to control it either.

In this state, the Congress party is losing its identity and dying. I would say the disintegration of the Congress as a whole will start from Tamil Nadu. So, rebirth too has to take place here because the Congress was born here in Tamil Nadu 100 years ago. It's a disease that has started here, and it will spread everywhere. Then, you will see a new man, new power coming up to lead the Congress party.

TN Congress Party - An Analysis

2006-04-17T18:33:00.000-07:00

There was once a time when Congress party was the dominant party in the Tamil Nadu with leaders like Kamaraj. However, ever since Kamaraj's demise the Tamil Nadu State Congress party has been witnessing a continuous decline in popularity.

Groupism within the state unit has prevented any mass leader from emerging. Moreover, the state leaders are completely at the behest of the High Command and have no say in important matters like alliances, seat sharing, and candidates. Everytime during elections, TNCC is affected by internal bickering and dissidence more than any other party. This time is also no different. The party is contesting its first election after the death of Moopanar, who was their most popular leader in the state for a couple of decades.

Today, there are three major groups within the Congress. The first one led by GK Vasan (son of Moopanar), second one is headed by former TNCC chief and present Union Minister Elangovan, and the last group is led by Finance Minister P Chidambaram. None of these groups have any major clout among the people. In this election, the Congress party is contesting 48 seats. Many observers feel that this is a lot given the fact that the popularity of the party has declined substantially and isn't a major force anymore in the state. Its will be interesting to see how many seats the party will manage to win in this election and if it can revive itself...

Top politicians file nomination

2006-04-17T18:04:00.000-07:00

More politicians filed their nomination papers on Monday. Significant among them are former TN CM Karunanidhi, who filed his nomination from the Chepauk constituency. This is the third successive time Karunanidhi is contesting from the constituency. This is also the 11 time Karunanidhi is contesting elections. He has emerged victories in all the previous ten times he has contested. During the filing, Karunanidhi declared assets to the tune of 25 crores. Others who filed their nomination on Monday were DMDK chief Vijaykanth, who was contesting from Viruddachalam, DMK deputy secretary and former Chennai Mayor MK Stalin, who is contesting from the Thousand Light seat, and JP state unit chief Chandraleka, who is contesting from the Mylapore seat.

Sarath Kumar joins ADMK

2006-04-17T17:47:00.000-07:00

Tamil actor Sarath Kumar joined the ADMK in the presence of TN CM Jayalalitha yesterday. He was accompanied by his wife Radhika. It may be recollected that Sarath Kumar resigned from the DMK a few days back complaining that his "hard work" wasn't respected by the party. Sarath Kumar is no stranger to the ADMK. As a matter of fact, he started his political career with the party before switching loyalties to the DMK in 1996. Its quite a surprising decision given the fact that he was considered close to Karunanidhi and the business relationship his wife shares with SUN TV. But differences propped up with the DMK's leadership when he was refused a party ticket for this upcoming elections. Sarath Kumar has the strong backing of the Nadar community which is dominant in the southern parts of the state. But more importantly, DMK has lost yet another star campaigner to the ADMK front. Sarath Kumar is undoubtedly a good crowd puller as seen from the previous elections, and given the fact that the DMK is already low on star power, this move by the actor is a big blow to the party.

Congress candidates for Pondy announced

2006-04-16T08:46:00.000-07:00

The Congress party announced candidates for the 16 seats that the party is contesting in Pondicherry for the upcoming assembly elections. The prominent among those whose candidancy was announced include Pondicherry chief minister N Rangaswamy from Thattanchavady, former chief minister V Vaithilingam from Nettapakam, Agriculture Minister A Namassivayam from Oulgaret, and Welfare Minister M Chandirakasu from Nedungadu. Malladi Krishna Rao who recently joined the party will be the parties candidate from Yanam. The Congress is contesting 16 out of the 30 seats as part of DPA alliance his election. Their other major partner, the DMK, has also announced its candidates for the 11 seats that it was alloted.

Jayalalitha files nomination

2006-04-16T08:10:00.000-07:00

TN Chief Minister Jayalalitha has filed her nomination papers from the Andipatti constituency. She presented her nomination papers to the District Backward Class Welfare Officer at the Collectorate. Among those present at the time of the filing include her close friend and associate Sasikala, former MP of Theni TTK Dinakaran, and PWD minister O Pannerselvam. Jayalalitha also declared assest to the tune of about 25 crores. Andipatti assembly constituency falls in the Theni district, a strong hold of the ADMK. In fact, Andipatti was earlier represented by ADMK founder MG Ramachadran (MGR). It may be recollected that DMK has fielded distributor Seeman, a native of Theni district, to take on Jayalalitha. Given the absense of any strong anti-incumbency wave against the ADMK government, one would expect Jayalalitha to emerge victories from this constituency.

Dead Heat - CNN IBN Poll

2006-04-13T17:44:00.000-07:00

Late Yesterday, CNN IBN came out with their pre-poll predictions for the upcoming assembly elections Tamil Nadu. They predicted a dead heat with a slight advantage for the ADMK front. But that was within the margin of error. This poll proves one thing: The ADMK has made up the huge margin that it was defeated in the last Lok Sabha election. Remember the DMK and its allies polled 52% as opposed to 35% by the ADMK. Thats a margin of 17%. The DMK allies have remained more or less intact with the exception of Vaiko's MDMK. ADMK has been able to erase all of that and even established a slender lead.

This also means that ADMK is well ahead of the DMK in a one-on-one race. Its the DMK allies (PMK, Congress, and the Left parties) that have helped it close the difference. But there are a few bright spots for the DMK. The DMK support is more concentrated. This means it might able to win a higher percentage of seats with a lower vote share. But ADMK should be very pleased with this poll prediction. With a large list of campaigners they have a good chance of pulling ahead with less than a month left before the polls.

ADMK - 46%

DMK - 44%

DMDK - 5%

BJP - 1%

Your Opinion

2006-04-12T17:03:00.001-07:00

In this weeks viewer's opinion section, I would like to hear from you about the poll prospects of Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK). DMDK was started by Tamil film actor Vijaykanth. Vijaykanth has been able to attract huge crowds during his campaign meetings. But the question in everybody's mind is will be able to translate this into votes. Vijaykanth is also contesting from Vriddhachalam assembly constituency, a strong hold of the PMK. Its was a very surprising decision since Vijaykanth is more popular in the south. How many seats do you predict DMDK will win in this election? Will Vijaykanth himself be able to win? Looking forward to your opinions...

D. Pandian (CPI) interview with 'The Hindu'

2006-04-12T16:56:00.000-07:00

How do you assess the prospects of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) in a multi-cornered contest?

There is bound to be a split in the voting pattern. But our experience shows that the DPA, which represents the combined strength of organised political parties, will be the major beneficiary. Multi-cornered contest will not affect our victory chances.

What is the Left's agenda for this election?

Our main concern is restoration of democratic norms and practices. If elected members are not allowed to air their views in the Assembly, then our election process becomes a farce.

Is it not true that the voice of the Left parties, as smaller partners in an electoral alliance, becomes feeble?

The voice is not decided by number. It is the substance that matters. The Left's principled political representation will definitely get the people's stamp of approval.

Do you think caste and community continue to play a role in the elections?

The menace of casteism is still very strong in Tamil Nadu. Despite social reformers campaigning for eradicating this evil system, the unfortunate reality is that community based outfits wearing political mask still exist. Our battle against them will continue even after the elections.

Unlike the situation during the Lok Sabha elections in 2004, no anti-incumbency wave is visible now...

This is true. In 2004, the fight was against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies. Now the BJP has its own front in the State. But the AIADMK Government's commissions and omissions will definitely have a bearing on the people despite its rollback measures. Further, the DPA's positive approach with some constructive economic programmes for the State's betterment will help us.

Do you think that the people in the State are averse to a coalition Government?

In Tamil Nadu, as we are all aware, parties that promoted and helped the formation of the United Progressive Alliance at the Centre do not feel that such a situation prevails here. They also say that it is premature to talk about coalitions now. This need not be made a big debating point now. If a single party is able to win adequate number of seats to form a Government on its own, it is good. We will extend our cooperation and help it from outside.

How will you ensure the implementation of the DMK's poll promises?

The DMK's election manifesto is a comprehensive and programme-oriented document. Its author is a man with rich experience and he was Chief Minister for four terms. Since he had presented the State's budget several times, he must be aware of the financial implications of implementing the poll promises. He is aware that we cannot take the people for granted.

Do you favour introduction of age ceiling for contesting elections?

Such issues should be discussed in a free and fair atmosphere where there is no election fever. The age ceiling should apply not only for elected posts but also for holding party responsibilities. We should not arrogate to ourselves more powers than what nature has bestowed on us. Lest we forget that nature is the ultimate decider.

Do you think film star Vijayakanth's entry into the election fray will have any impact?

Vijayakanth is attracting a good crowd wherever he goes. But he cannot dream of carrying the political masses with him, as the late M.G. Ramachandran did following his expulsion from the DMK.

Galaxy of stars campaign for ADMK

2006-04-11T18:41:00.000-07:00

"A galaxy of film stars led by Simran, the 'dream girl' of Tamil films, and comedian Kovai Sarala plunged into politics when they started their campaigning for the AIADMK at a public meeting yesterday in support of sitting MLA, Sekar Babu, at the R K Nagar constituency in north Chennai. Others who joined the stars included Vindhya, director Manoj Kumar, lyricist Snehan, dance directors Anthony and Raghuram. Simran managed to deliver a ten-line address with prompts from those on the podium, while Vindhya had inputs from poet Kannadasan's book, in which he had criticised DMK president M Karunanidhi. The stars said that this was just the beginning and several more of their flock would soon pledge support to the AIADMK for the May 8 elections."

[Update] Rediff Assembly Election Special Coverage of this meeting

Source: Chennai Online

Lok Paritran

2006-04-11T18:31:00.000-07:00

A few weeks back I had written about Lok Paritran, a party started by ex-IITians. Many of you have been quite positive about this development. Lok Paritran will be contesting 12 seats in the TN assembly elections including 6 from Chennai. Founder member and chief advisor S Vasudev will contest from the Mylapore assembly segment (actors Napoleon and S.Ve. Sekar are also contesting the same seat). Besides, the party will also field candidates in T.Nagar, Anna Nagar, Thousand Light, Park Town, Saidapet, and Rasipuram in Salem district.

Sarath Kumar quits DMK

2006-04-11T18:13:00.000-07:00

In a surprising development yesterday, Tamil actor Sarath Kumar decided to quit from the primary membership of the DMK. A few weeks back, Sarath Kumar's fans were upset that his fan club wasn't given due respect by the DMK. They had openly asked the actor to quit the party. Since then there were rumors floated around in the local press that he might decide to quit the party. But, many expected him to stay given that his the close business relationship his wife actress Radhika has with SUN TV. But in a statement released yesterday, Sarath Kumar claimed that his "hard work" wasn't given due respect by the party and that he has been belittled by people close to Karunanidhi. His next course of action will be closely watched. Will he decide to move over to the ADMK camp, or will he decide to contest independently, or will he decide to take back his resignation? Only time will tell...

Finally...

2006-04-09T10:34:00.000-07:00

Ending days of suspense, the Congress and DMK signed a seat-sharing accord among the DPA partners for the 30-member Pondicherry Assembly. Under the agreement, the ruling Congress will contest in 16 seats, and the DMK in 11 seats. The PMK will be contest in 2 seats and the CPI has been alloted 1 seat. The accord was signed by PCC leader P Shanmugam and former DMK chief minister RV Janakiraman. Eventhough the DPA was able to reach seat sharing agreement in Tamil Nadu earlier, talks regarding an agreement for Pondicherry remained inconclusive. But looks like they have finally able to work out a compromise. The final breakdown of the number of seats contested by the various parties in the DPA in Pondicherry is provided below,

Congress - 16

DMK - 11

PMK - 2

CPI - 1

Ramadoss interview with 'The Hindu'

2006-04-09T10:23:00.000-07:00

What is your main election plank?

That this [the AIADMK] Government was an oppressive regime for nearly four and a half years. The Government has neglected industrial development and implementation of welfare schemes. On the education front, there is confusion all over. The Common Entrance Test issue is one example. Chief Minister Jayalalithaa does not consult experts or talented officers. She does not have well-informed Ministers too. No efforts have been taken by the Government to eradicate poverty. Instead of going down, the number of families living below the poverty line has gone up. Employment creation is one way of eradicating poverty. Immediately after her Government took office, a ban on recruitment to government jobs was imposed, and this was lifted only at the fag end of her regime. If she wanted, she could have got many things done on infrastructure development, using the presence of 12-13 Ministers [from Tamil Nadu] in the Union Cabinet. But she politicised everything and blamed the Union Government. Take the desalination plant project — she should have taken Rs. 1,000 crore; if she found it inadequate, she could have sought Rs. 500 crore more. Similarly, the State Government could have implemented 80 projects of road over-bridges and road under-bridges with the Railways Ministry. There was no response to the letters of the Union Minister of State for Railways, R. Velu.

What is the strength of the DPA?

Arithmetic strength. There are three national parties in our front. The PMK is there as an important constituent. As everyone knows, the DMK has always been a stronger force than the AIADMK. Ms. Jayalalithaa does not have anyone to canvass for her except a few actors.

What about the perception that Ms. Jayalalithaa has re-gained lost ground after 2004?

It is a myth. Such a perception has been created. Some journals have been intimidated to create such a perception. People know that whatever measures have been rolled back will be reversed if she comes to power again.

What is the PMK's plan to secure Dalit votes in the northern districts? It does not have the support of the Dalit Panthers of India or the AIADMK, which backed you in the 2001 Assembly election?

The Dalits know that we [the PMK] were not responsible for his [the Dalit Panthers leader, Thol Thirumavalan's] decision [to go to the AIADMK-led front]. The AIADMK had the support of the Dalits in the past but there has been a steep erosion. The Dalits were sore over the Government's decision to stop giving free dhotis and sarees [a move restored by the Government subsequently]. The DMK has done a lot of work to gain the confidence of the Dalits. And we have increased our base among the Dalits.

What is the PMK's plan to expand its reach?

We moved out of the "petty circle" as early as in 1998. We have units in all districts. While we have been given a good number of seats in the eastern and northern districts and one seat in the west [under the seat-sharing arrangement of the DPA], it is a matter of regret that we have not got any representation in the southern belt.

Source: The Hindu

Karthik to contest from Andipatti?

2006-04-08T08:32:00.000-07:00

Actor turned politician and head of the TN unit of AIFB, Karthik lashed out at the ADMK in an interview to the online portal Chennai Online. Karthik told the portal that he was offered 3.5 crores + 5 assembly seats from Madurai Adheenam ( head of a religious institution in Madurai ) on behalf of the ADMK. However, Karthik said he had rejected the offer and decided to contest on its own. The actor also mentions in the interview, that he has been receiving death treats but claims that he was not worried about it. In an apparent warning to the ADMK, Karthik said that if the death treats continue or if there was any attempt to block the Lion symbol of the AIFB, he might even contest from Andipatti against ADMK Chief Jayalalitha. If such a situation arises (and if he secures support from the DPA alliance), we are sure to expect a good fight since Andipatti constituency is dominated by Thevars. Karthik himself is a Thevar and has very good support from the community. If Karthik decides to throw his hat in the ring, then expect an exciting election.

DPA's Pondicherry Problem

2006-04-07T17:58:00.000-07:00

The deadline for filing for nominations end on April 12th. What is surprising is that the DPA has still not even reached a seat sharing agreement in Pondicherry. It appears that the Congress will have to go it alone like last time. Unlike Tamil Nadu, the Congress has significant presence in the Union Territory. In fact last time they defeated both the DMK led alliance with PMC (Kannan) and ADMK + PMK combine to form a majority. The Congress would ideally like to contest 16-17 seats. However, this may not be possible since they have to allot seats to DMK, PMK, CPM, and CPI. There is simply not enough seats for all of them.

Another problem is that PMK always wants to contest a lion share of seats in the Union Territory because of the large presence of the Vanniyar community. But unlike TN where the PMK has some presence, in the Pondicherry its influence is negligible. Yet, it demands a significant number of seats. Either, the Congress will have to convince the DMK to let go of PMK or contest separately like last time. The DMK is also in a very tricky position as well. It doesn't want this to affect its relationship with the PMK since in the event of a hung assembly in TN, PMK leader Ramadoss may well be the deciding factor.

The next couple of days will be interesting...

Congress list announced

2006-04-06T20:02:00.000-07:00

Finally, the Congress party released its list of candidates for the TN Assembly election. The party decided to re-nominate 18 sitting MLAs. Prominent among those re-nominated are SR Balasubramanium, K. Paramalai, D. Yasodha, S. Maheswari and C. Gnanasekaran. Other candidates who were part of the list were Vishnu Prasad, son of TNCC chief Krishnasswamy, Vasantha Kumar, brother of former TNCC chief Kumari Ananthan, and Arul Anbarasu, son of Era. Anbarasu. Royapuram Manohar was selected as the Congress candidate for the lone seat in Chennai. As expected, the announcement led to some dissidence among a section of the state Congress. The activist of the Congress trade union, INTUC were particular disappointed with the selection of nominees. Also Congress veteran Mukta Srinivasan has decided to quit the party, expressing dismay at the announcement.

STAR WARS in Mylapore

2006-04-05T22:17:00.000-07:00

With the elections in mind, Rediff.com has launched Citizen Election Reporter, through which citizens can share their views on the elections in the states that go to polls. Here's a piece I submitted today:

The quiet, residential locality of Mylapore is steeped in the history of Chennai. Mentions of Mylapore bring to mind the majestic Kapaleeswara temple, the famous Chitrakulam tank, the Santhome Church which is close by, and even the Dabba Chetty Stores, which is part of the city's heritage.

Mylapore will witness a star-studded fight in the upcoming elections. The ADMK has fielded S.Ve. Sekar, the veteran comedian, who has ruled the Tamil drama scene with his popular dramas. The DMK has allotted the constituency to Napoleon, the lanky hero who now represents the Villivakkam constituency (also in Chennai).

Chennai has traditionally been a bastion of the DMK, but S.Ve. Sekar will be hoping to buck that trend in these elections. Two factors are in his favour. Firstly, S.Ve. Sekar needs no introduction at all. The same goes for Napoleon too, but the former is definitely the more popular of the two. Secondly, Mylapore is a predominantly Hindu residential area, so S.Ve. Sekar should be able to cash in on the Hindu vote.

Also, the voters in Mylapore might wonder why Napoleon has been shifted from the Villivakkam constituency to their's. Indeed, there are some rumours floating around that Napoleon is not very popular in his current constituency, and his chances of re-election from there are not bright. However, he is known to be a fiery speaker, and can woo the masses. On the contrary, S.Ve. Sekar laces comedy even into his election speeches.

Whoever wins, Mylapore will be one of the constituencies to watch. The stars are in action, and it is heating up!

[Update] CNN-IBN video [Thanks Kaps for the information]

Bhagyaraj joins DMK

2006-04-05T18:14:00.000-07:00

"In a rude jolt to the ruling AIADMK, popular Tamil film actor and director K Bhagyaraj, a die-hard MGR admirer, today met DMK president M Karunanidhi at Anna Arivalayam along with office-bearers of his fans' association and decided to join the DMK. They pledged to campaign for the DMK-led DPA in the coming Assembly elections as AIADMK leader J Jayalalithaa had "sidelined MGR loyalists". Bhagyaraj is quite popular in the western and southern belts of Tamil Nadu and both his movies and TV shows have been well received, particularly by women. The DMK move to rope in Bhagyaraj is aimed at making a dent in the AIADMK vote-bank and wean away MGR loyalists, most of whom have been ignored in the ticket distribution for the Assembly elections. Though Bhagyaraj is seen more as a director these days, he continues to have his own sphere of influence as one of the best exponents of screenplay in the Indian film industry."

Source: Chennai Online

Rebellion

2006-04-04T17:52:00.000-07:00

Election time is when you see people switching from one party to another because they weren't awarded seats. This election is no different and all parties seem to face this problem. The ADMK MLA from Nagercoil, Austin resigned from the primary membership of the party and decided to contest as an Independent. Also actor T Rajendran who was earlier supporting the ADMK is very angry at being denied a ticket, has also decided to contest as an Independent. Meanwhile, the situation in DMK seems even worse. DMK MLA from Tiruvarur, Asokan has switch over to ADMK at being denied a ticket. Meanwhile, Cuddalore DMK strongman AG Sampath also resigned because his seat was allot to the PMK. Another party facing strong dissidence is the Congress. Fearful of a split within the ranks, the party has decided against announcing the names of candidates. Already the party witnessed clashes between R Manohar and former MLA Chellakumar. Chellakumar has since then been suspended from the party. Expect more problems when the Congress announces the candidates in a few days time.

Simran campaigning for ADMK?

2006-04-04T17:01:00.000-07:00

With no offers coming her way in the film industry, actress Simran surprised many by meeting with TN Chief Minister Jayalalitha yesterday. Accompanied by her new born son and her husband Deepak Bagga, she met Jayalalitha during her campaign stop in Vizhupuram and pledged support for the ADMK alliance. The press also carries report that Simran might go on a 20-day whirlwind campaign for the ADMK front in Tamil Nadu. Looks like an election time treat for people in TN...

Your Opinion

2006-04-03T17:37:00.000-07:00

Its very refresing to see so many of you visiting this blog everyday catching up with news and commenting on the various postings. A sincere thanks to everyone. I taught this would be a good time for an opinion section. In this week section, I would like to know what you think will be the finally tally of the two major fronts the DPA (DMK, Congress, PMK, CPM, IUML, and CPI) and the DPF(ADMK, MDMK, DPI, and AIFB) in the elections. My personal prediction at this moment would be DPA - 140 and DPF - 90 seats. But I think the trend seems to favor the DPF at the moment and even a small swing (especially in a 2 front race) away from the DPA would mean a reversal in numbers? Your comments.

Personality Watch - MK Stalin

2006-04-03T17:26:00.000-07:00

Last week I started the personality watch section were I promised to write about a personality each week who will influence the upcoming assembly election . This week I will write about MK Stalin, former Mayor of Chennai and son of DMK chief M Karunanidhi. MK Stalin started out his political career in the youth wing of DMK. Slowly, he was elevated up the ranks and is presently severing as the deputy general secretary of the party. In 1996, Stalin was elected mayor of Chennai a post he held till 2001 which he was forced to relinquish because of the one man one post legislature brought by the ADMK government headed by Jayalalitha. A lot of the second line leadership of DMK today are considered close to Stalin. But the rise of Stalin within the DMK ranks hasn't been an easy one. In 1994, Vaiko launched a rebellion against Karunanidhi for promoting Stalin. In the 2001 assembly elections there was a lot of bickering within the DMK and even MK Azhagiri, another son of Karunanidhi, openly rebelled against party candidates close to Stalin. In fact, PTR Palanivel Rajan, the former speaker became a victim of this and lost what was supposed to be a safe seat in Madurai. While, Stalin might not be able to match the charisma of Karunanidhi, he is quite adept at running the organization. During his tenure as Mayor, Stalin was able to keep DMK's presence within the Chennai city. During every election in the last decade, DMK has been able to draw on this to register impressive wins in Chennai. In the upcoming elections, MK Stalin will continue to play an important role within the DMK. It is also possible that Stalin might have an outside chance of becoming Chief Minister. This largely depends on the number of seats DMK can muster. If they are very close to the majority mark you can bet Karunanidhi making way for his rising son.

ADMK goes online

2006-04-02T22:29:00.000-07:00

The New York Times of yesterday carries an interesting article detailing how both the Republicans and the Democrats are discovering the utility of the Internet as a campaigning medium. Adam Nagourney writes:

Democrats and Republicans are sharply increasing their use of e-mail, interactive Web sites, candidate and party blogs, and text-messaging to raise money, organize get-out-the-vote efforts and assemble crowds for a rallies. The Internet, they said, appears to be far more efficient, and less costly, than the traditional tools of politics, notably door knocking and telephone banks. Those include Podcasts featuring a daily downloaded message from a candidate and so-called viral attack videos, designed to trigger peer-to-peer distribution by e-mail chains, without being associated with any candidate or campaign. Campaigns are now studying popular Internet social networks, like Friendster and Facebook, as ways to reaching groups of potential supporters with similar political views or cultural interests.

Further, the article quotes from a survey by the Pew Research Center, that the number of Americans who went online for election news jumped from 13% in 2002 to 29% in 2004. Surely, even politicians don't want to be behind in the digital revolution. India, though is a different story altogether. I think we are still a long way away from influencing voters through the Internet. In our country, what works is the crowds that one can draw along the way. That explains why all the main campaigners in Tamil Nadu have hit the road already. So when I came to know that the ADMK had launched a campaign website, it came as a surprise to me. However, the site itself (ElectADMK.com) is like a breath of fresh air. The design is simple and elegant, and the content has been organised reasonably well. There is even a registration form, probably for sending out emails during the run-up. The one thing I would have liked is a clickable list of candidates, which would give the profile of each candidate. Secondly, the site is very much Amma-centric, which however is not very surprising. Anyway, the site is good and is worth a few clicks... even if you are voting for the ADMK.

Names for Name-Sake

2006-04-01T09:00:00.000-08:00

Former TNCC chief Tindivanam Ramamurthy today released the first list of 36 candidates for the forthcoming assembly elections. Interestingly, the party has fielded a candidate in Andipatti against Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. Ramamurthy, who was suspended from TNCC for his alleged anti-party activities recently, floated his own party called Tamilnadu Indira Congress (TIC). He also had met Jayalalithaa and was hopeful getting a few seats for his new outfit in the AIADMK combine. Addressing press persons here today, Ramamurthy, said 'I had only expressed my desire to forge an alliance with AIADMK. No formal decision was taken then that we would align with them.' Going further, Ramamurthy said 'I am not worried about AIADMK not allocating seats for our party'. He also announced that the name of his party has been changed to Tamilnadu Jananayaga Congress (TJC) and the party flag would have a tri-colour with the images of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and former Chief Minister Kamaraj. Candidates for the 36 constituencies announced by Tindivanam Ramamurthy include: Park Town (Srinivasa Murthy), Purasaiwalkkam (Geetha), Triplicane (Ice House Thyagu), Villivakkam (Sudhakaran), Chengalpet (N Paramasivam), Tambaram (Akbar), Kanchipuram ( Berry), Vanoor (Thilakavathay Rajan), Cuddalore (Asok Kumar), Kurinijipadi (Krishnamurthy), Katumannar Koil ( Mani), Andipatti (Sivakumar).

Source: News Today

Vijayakanth to contest from Vriddhachalam

2006-04-01T00:20:00.000-08:00

Actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth will contest the May 8 Assembly elections from Vriddhachalam constituency in Cuddalore. Announcing this while releasing the first list of 140 candidates of his party Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Vijayakanth said that the party manifesto would be released in a couple of days and the final list for the remaining 94 seats would be out before April 6. The party would be contesting all the 234 constituencies. The party’s presidium chairman and former minister S Ramachandran would contest from his traditional Panruti constituency. Eighteen women figured in the list. Also included in the list released on Friday were deputy general secretary P Parthasarathy (Thiruvallur), treasurer R Sundararajan (Madurai Central), headquarters T Murugesan (Uthiramerur) and propaganda secretary V C Chandrakumar (Erode). Vijayakanth, who has been targeted by the PMK ever since the run to the founding of his party in September last year, seems to have decided to take the battle to the Vanniar heartland by contesting from Vridhachalam. Vijayakanth also ridiculed the “Rs 2 a kg rice” promise of the DMK, and said that if DMK president M Karunanidhi was sincere about it he could have done so during his term as the Chief Minister. The people, he said, would decide the fate of the freebies like colour television announced in the DMK manifesto and the various promises held out by the ruling AIADMK in its manifesto. Reiterating his party’s resolve to go it alone, he said that he would approach the people highlighting the “evils of both the AIADMK and the DMK.” Vijayakanth claimed that there was a great response to his party among the people, who wanted a change. He hoped that this would be reflected in the voting pattern.

Source: Indian Express

DMK releases candidate list

2006-03-30T17:48:00.000-08:00

Yesterday DMK released their candidate list for the forth coming assembly elections. DMK president and former chief minister M Karunanidhi will again seek re-election from the Chepauk constituency in Chennai. The list also includes several heavyweights like former ministers K Anbazhagan (Habour), Arcot N Veerasami (Anna Nagar), Durai Murugan (Katpandi), Ko Si Mani (Kumbakonam), Veerapandi S Arumugam (Salem-2), K Ponmudi (Villupuram), M R K Panneerselvam (Kurinjipadi), K Pitchandi (Tiruvannamalai), Sargunapandian (Royapuram), A Rahman Khan (Park Town), V Mullaivendhan (Morappur), Pongalur Palanichamy (Coimbatore East), besides former Mayor of Chennai M K Stalin (Thousand Lights). The list includes 77 graduates, 13 women and four Muslims. The list released tonight also includes the names of some allies who would be contesting on the DMK symbol.

Vote for DMK, get a free TV

2006-03-29T20:01:00.000-08:00

Free colour TVs, reservation for minorities and free power for weavers are some of the promises that the DMK has made to Tamil Nadu voters in its manifesto released on Wednesday. The AIADMK government has implemented several populist schemes, and the DMK, its chief rival, doesn't want to be left behind. The government has a free bicycle scheme for students, so the DMK promises to give colour TVs to all families in the state. The DMK manifesto says pregnant women will get a monthly allowance of Rs 1000 for six months. That's in reply to AIADMK giving cash awards of Rs 1,000 in villages and Rs 2,000 in Chennai for flood victims. There is more on the gravy train. The DMK says it will give free LPG stoves to poor families, arrange jobs for 3 lakh unemployed youth, provide good quality rice at Rs 2 per kg for the poor and ensure reservations for Muslims and Christians.

Source: IBNLive [Thanks randramble for this information]

How they stack up?

2006-03-29T07:26:00.000-08:00

[Cross-posted in VKpedia]

The seat-sharing arrangement of the two major fronts is out. And it makes interesting reading, into the minds of the alliance leaders, that is.

Everywhere there is talk of coalitions in politics. The positives and the downsides of this have been argued ad nauseum, so I have nothing to add to it. Except that coalitions are here to stay. This is because politicians find it easy to divide territories along casteist lines. In the future, we might have political parties forged to protect the interests of micro-communities. So don't be surprised if there springs up a new party with the sole agenda of demanding equal rights for the "34th descendant of the late Shyama Sastry (1609 - 1658) of Needamangalam".

The DMK, as analysts point out, has allocated seats in such a way as to signify that it ackowledges its readiness for coalition politics. Contesting just 129 seats, the DMK needs to have a winning rate of 91.5% to form a government on its own. Many political watchers have termed this as yet another master-stroke by Mr. Karunanidhi. He has been generous in awarding seats to the coalition partners, more than what they might have expected themselves.

On the contrary, the ADMK is contesting 182 seats. One can easily discern two reasons behind this. First, the ADMK's coalition comprises of only one large party (the MDMK). The other parties have all been allotted only single-digit seats. Secondly, and this is more important, the ADMK supremo still believes that her party has enough in it to form a government on its own.

Some may claim that the ADMK's confidence is not well-founded. But one must not forget that Ms Jayalalithaa triumphed in the 2001 elections almost single-handedly. True, the opposition wasn't as formidable then, yet the ADMK did the improbable then. This year's fight is similar - it is the DPA's numbers against Ms Jayalalithaa's charisma. ~~Who~~ Which will triumph? We'll know in six weeks' time.

Share in Government not in Seats - Captain Style

2006-03-28T16:59:00.000-08:00

Well a lot of people have been predicting that Captain Vijaykanth's DMDK party will align with one of the major fronts in the coming elections. However, this did not materialize since he has been demanding a large share of seats. Now Vijaykanth is hoping that his party will be able to win a few seats in the elections and then he could become a kingmaker. He has openly stated that he would prefer a coalition government in such an event. However, it remains to be seen which party Vijaykanth would align in such an event. During his public meetings he criticised both the AIADMK and the DMK as corrupt parties with no concern for the people's welfare. He charged the AIADMK government with not providing him enough security after he refused to join the AIADMK alliance and said that he would not be cowed down by such threats. He said that he had visited all the districts in the state, especially rural areas, and found the condition of the people to be very pathetic. However, even though his meetings are well attended, political pandits have predicted that he would have a hard time even to win a single assembly seat. Furthermore, the local media has completely blacked out coverage of his party.

DPF Seat Sharing

2006-03-27T21:01:00.000-08:00

With ADMK releasing its list of 182 candidates it formalizes the seat sharing among the various parties in the Democratic Peoples Front (DPF). MDMK which is the main ally of the ADMK in this election will contest in 35 seats, meanwhile DPI will contest 9 seats. Besides, the ADMK will allocate 2 seats each for the break away goups of the INTUC, and INL. One seat each has been alloted to Movendar Munnetra Kazhagam, Janata Dal (Secular) and splinter groups of Indian Union Muslim League and All India Forward Bloc. This brings to close the seat sharing agreements in the two major fronts. It remains to be seen if some sort of 3rd front can be formed by BJP and acor Vijaykanth's new party. However, this remains highly unlikely.

ADMK - 182

MDMK - 35

DPI - 9

INTUC - 2*

INL - 2

IUML - 1*

Janata Dal (S) - 1

Movendar Munnetra Kazhagam - 1

All India Forward Bloc - 1*

(*) - Splinter Groups

Vaiko interview with rediff.com (part II)

2006-03-27T20:49:00.000-08:00

It was reported widely that your mother was against you joining the AIADMK alliance.

My mother is my goddess. She is a very brave woman. In fact, she told me, 'Why don't you go to the AIADMK because these people [the DMK] will never allow you to grow.' I said, 'How can I go, amma?' I was taking her to my village, and my personal assistant and cadres were in the car with us. When they told me to go with the AIADMK, for argument's sake I told them that I should not go with the AIADMK because my image might be damaged, and people would blame me. My mother was sitting by my side but she just listened. At night, as I was leaving home, I touched her feet. She said, if you are worried that your honour may be damaged, you should continue with the DMK. When a reporter from a weekly asked her some questions, she was under the impression that I was with the DMK. In fact, till March, I also felt I was with the DMK alliance. So, she told the reporter that even if the AIADMK gave 100 seats, my son would not leave the DMK alliance. When this appeared in print, the villagers asked her, 'Why did you tell your son to go with the DMK when the cadres are not happy with it?' She then telephoned me and said, 'Do whatever you think is good for the party.' But when the papers played up her opinion, she got very upset. She felt she had embarrassed her son. Her health got affected and I had to admit her in a hospital for 10 days. Those who used my mother were heartless people.

Would you have listened to your mother?

This is not a family matter. My party is not like Karunanidhi's party. My party is not a family party. It is the party members who decide, not my mother. Not my family members. Is it true you had been contemplating joining the AIADMK-led front? I was undergoing tremendous mental trauma for the last two years. I never expected a total blackout of myself and my party on Sun TV during the Lok Sabha poll campaign despite the fact that I campaigned for the DPA in all the party constituencies. Even at the one venue I participated along with Kalaignar -- in Sivakasi constituency at Arippukottai -- I was not shown. Only Kalaignar was shown. Madam Sonia Gandhi was to address a gathering in Chennai. I came to know from a very responsible source in the Congress that Kalaignar was very particular that only he and Sonia Gandhi should address the meeting. The source also told me that Kalaignar did not want me to share the dais with Sonia Gandhi and make a speech. Even during the election campaign, I was treated like this. My hard work was utilised for the success of the UPA [United Progressive Alliance] candidates but at the same time, they didn't want to show my face on TV. Immediately after the elections, my party was not included in the public meeting of the DPA. I asked Kalaignar why. He told me only the parties who had representation in the assembly were invited. I then told him, 'The meeting is not going to take place inside the assembly but in a public place. It gives the impression that the MDMK is being pushed out of the alliance.' Only after this conversation was the MDMK included in the meeting.

Why didn't you speak about this earlier?

Let me complete what I went through. Though I understood they wanted to utilise me but at the same time they wanted to suppress me and crush me and throw me out, I decided to continue in the alliance. During my 42-day padayatra, I met lakhs and lakhs of people everyday, and only Sun TV did not telecast any visuals of it. The reward Raj TV got for telecasting my programme three times everyday was the cancellation of their licence. Using the communications ministry, they are promoting their business and destroying others who are in the same business. This has never happened in Independent India.

Did you ever speak about this to Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh?

I have the greatest admiration, affection and respect for that great man. He is a noble person. I feel I should not divulge what I had discussed with the prime minister.

You said you were disillusioned with the DPA from 2004. Why then did you continue as an ally?

I thought, what other alternative do I have? I have to tolerate all this and continue. In 1993, I was thrown out and diabolical criminal charges were framed against me. Even now, I had only worked sincerely for the alliance. I don't know why they treated me like this. After the padayatra was over, on September 23, 2004, he [Karunanidhi] wrote an article in Murasoli in which he castigated me very badly. He wrote, 'These are the people who tried to capture our party and the flag. They are the villains.' I was described as a poisonous snake, a wolf and a bloodthirsty vulture. He wrote, 'These people will run away at the glare of the sun.' Yes, he was correct; not the rising sun [the DMK's party symbol] but the son [Karunanidhi's son Stalin].

Did he mention your name in the article?

He didn't have to name me. He wrote, 'The people who left the party some years back.' I asked him, 'Why did you write like this?' He said, 'I was angry because Aladi Aruna [DMK politician, who was murdered on December 31, 2004] addressed your meeting.' I said, 'I never invited him. He came by himself.' Then he said, 'John attacked Sun TV at the meeting. At the meeting itself, I had said I did not agree with that. John was ill at that time yet he had come to attend.' I asked him [Karunanidhi], 'I have not made any mistake. Why do you treat me like this?' He had no answer. Then he said, 'You told a weekly that you don't watch Sun TV.' I said, 'I said so in an interview to Kalki because I don't watch Sun TV. I am untouchable as far as Sun TV is concerned.' After the padayatra was over, they [Sun TV] showed a skit about a man going on a padayatra and falling dead. When my party cadres saw this, their feelings erupted like a volcano. But I stomached it. I was struggling inside. Why should we work for such an alliance, I thought. After you left the DMK alliance, Sun TV is showing your earlier speeches on Jayalalithaa. I am very happy. At least now they are showing my face!

In your interview to Jaya TV, you spoke about the prime minister giving ministerial berths to the MDMK.

No, that was not what I said. At one point of time, I thought of reconsidering the decision of not joining the ministry. When I asked the PM whether it was possible, he asked, 'Will the DMK drop one minister from their quota?' It seems the DMK got so many ministerial berths counting the MDMK seats as well. I was shocked to hear that. When I met Sonia Gandhi, she also said that the impression she got from the DMK was that MDMK was within the DMK -- that is, an alliance within an alliance.

How do you describe the last few months of your political career?

It has been a traumatic period.

ADMK List Announced

2006-03-27T19:49:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, the ADMK put out the list of 182 candidates who will contest the assembly elections on May 8th. A total of 51 MLAs were renominated including chief minister J Jayalalitha. Jayalalitha will be again contest from Andipatti and former CM and current Public Works Minister Paneerselvam will be re-nominated from Periyakulam. Meanwhile, former assembly speaker K Kalimuthu will be shifted to contest from Madurai Central. Other ADMK bigwings like D Jayakumar and Thalavai Sundaram will contest from Royapuram and Kanyakumari respectively. Finance Minister Ponnaiyan who has recently fell out with Jayalalitha and Sports and Youth Welfare Minister Inbathamilam were denied tickets. Among film personalities, only S.Ve.Sekar was given a seat. Others actors like Vijaykumar, Senthil, Murali were not given tickets. Also Radha Ravi who represented the Saidapet assembly segment was denied ticket.

Personality Watch - K Kalimuthu

2006-03-24T22:20:00.000-08:00

Each week I am planning to write about a personality who will play a important role in the outcome of the assembly election. I will generally try to write about a less known figure but nonetheless important. In this weeks personality watch segment, I taught it would be interesting to write about former assembly speaker K Kalimuthu. He has been in the news recently since it was his famous call to Vaiko that led to a series of events that eventually brought MDMK into the ADMK fold. Kalimuthu is one of the best orators in TN politics. When ADMK split in the late 1980s after MGR's death, Kalimuthu aligned himself with the Janaki faction. His reference to Jayalalitha "Vasantasenai" was well known. But once the two factions of the ADMK merged under Jayalalitha, Kalimuthu became a fierce loyalist. In the recent assembly he held the post of speaker although he was a leading front runner for a ministerial post. His relationship with Jayalalitha has always been mixed. While he is quite indispensable during election time with his oratory skills, Jayalalitha usually assigns him a less profile role there after. Except him to be one of the star campaigners for the ADMK led DPF alliance.

Vaiko's interview with rediff.com

2006-03-24T22:03:00.000-08:00

The question that is being asked everywhere is, how could you think of having an alliance with Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa after she arrested you and put you in jail for 19 months?

Yes, that was what was on my mind when my party people suggested it to me. I knew people would ask this question to me.During the MISA [Maintenance of Internal Security Act] detention [during the Emergency in 1975-77], the Congress party and the central government indulged in character assassination against the DMK, and it was portrayed as the most corrupt party. The DMK described Indira Gandhi as Lady Hitler. Two of the DMK cadres died in jail after they were arrested under MISA. I was also in jail. Later, the Congress joined hands with the DMK. Is that not sheer opportunism? They called Vajpayee and Advani fraudulent sanyasis, and said Tamil Nadu should not allow them to enter the state. But didn't they ally with the BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party]? In 2003, the DMK and Dr Kalaignar [M Karunanidhi] started talking with the Congress even when they were with the NDA [National Democratic Alliance]. Is this not opportunism?

But the DMK alleges that even while you were with the DMK alliance, you tried to forge ties with the AIADMK.

The DMK tried to ditch me, crush me and destroy my party. My party is above my personal interest. My party cadres are my life because they stood by me when I was thrown out of the DMK. When the entire party wanted to go with the AIADMK, I had to agree with them. Ours is a democratic party. I am not a dictator. I have never hidden anything. I had told Kalaignar that my entire party wanted to go the AIADMK. You give us at least 25 seats, I will try to persuade them to stay. But what did they do? I swear by the name of Anna [Tamil Nadu's first non-Congress chief minister, T N Annadurai] that on January 26, Karunanidhi promised me 25 seats. When I went to meet him on February 22, he said I never promised you 25 seats. Even then, I thought he would change his mind. When I met Arcot Veerasamy, I told him, unless you keep the promise, I will leave and join the AIADMK alliance.

So, if they had given you 25 seats, would you have continued with the DPA?

Yes, I would have continued.

Even though your party cadres wished to be with the AIADMK?

I would have tried to convince my cadres. That would have been a difficult job. But by the stroke of providence and destiny, good things happened. On March 3, the DMK conference was about to commence. By 8 am, I spoke to Karunanidhi over the phone. While meeting the press earlier, he had said, 'I told Vaiko one or two [seats] may be reduced.' I told him over the phone, 'Even if you reduce one or two, you should give me 23 or 22.' He said [he would reduce] 'One, two or three.' I said, 'You never mentioned three earlier.' His answer was 'one plus two is three.' I said, 'This is jugglery with words. I don't want to compete with you in this.' I even begged him to give 23 seats but he refused. Then, he brusquely said, 'Let the conference be over. Then, let me think over it.' By 1 pm, he met the press and said 22 seats would be given to the MDMK. The door was shown to me. It is an insult to my self-respect and the dignity of our party. Our district secretaries called me and said we should not go with the DMK.

Karunanidhi later said even if he had given you 25 seats, you would have asked for one more and then left the alliance -- because you had decided that you would leave.

That is not true. He could have tried it. He could then have said, 'Vaiko asked 25, I gave 25. Even then he left.' You know, intelligence used for good purpose will succeed but intelligence used with malicious intentions will backfire.

Weren't you worried about your credibility?

What credibility? I haven't compromised anything. It is an electoral alliance. I have not compromised on my principles or policies. In politics, parties with different ideologies forge alliances all over the country. You look at history -- didn't the communists support the Jan Sangh-turned BJP during the Janata Party rule [in 1977]? Did they then compromise on their ideology? One question I want to ask is: Which is more important -- dynastic politics and family interest, or the welfare of the state? These are the two things that will be before the electorate. Let the people decide.

And what if people too raise the question of why you joined Jayalalithaa?

POTA was launched by the BJP, and not Madam Jayalalithaa. My party men were in the [Union] ministry, and that was a mistake.

But she was the person who used POTA.

Yes, she used it.

And, you called her a fascist then.

Yes. These are all part of the game. It has happened. Let us forget the past. If you stick to the past, no political party can forge an alliance with any other political party. So, I will tell the public, let us forget the past.

List Announced!

2006-03-24T21:44:00.000-08:00

Not to be left behind, the ADMK led DPF alliance released the list of constituencies for the forth coming assembly election. The ADMK will contest a total of 182 seats. It will face off directly against the DMK in 105 seats. In Chennai, the ADMK and DMK will face each other in Royapuram, Park Town and Purasawalkam assembly segments. It is pitted against the Congress in 35 seats, and PMK in 26 seats. The announcement also means that the ADMK has shut its doors on other smaller allies like the TN Indira Congress floated by former Congress chief T Ramamurthy, and PT led by Krishnaswamy. According to sources in the ADMK, some smaller parties may be accommodated provided they agree to contest from the ADMK symbol. With this it brings to conclusion the seat sharing between various parties. Expect the announcement of candidates within the next week. The ADMK also announced that its leader and TN CM J Jayalalitha would start campaigning at the end of March. The campaign is interestingly poised and this might be one of the closest elections in TN history. At this point in time, no single party seems like being able to win an outright majority.

Pact Sealed!

2006-03-23T07:15:00.000-08:00

The TN Congress and DMK have identified the constituencies that the former is going to contest in the upcomming assembly elections. An agreement to this effect was signed by DMK president M. Karunanidhi and Tamil Nadu Congress Committee president M. Krishnaswamy at the DMK headquarters Anna Arivalayam. Speaking to reporters after signing the agreement, Congress Working Committee member in-charge of the Tamil Nadu unit M. Veerappa Moily said that the Congress was satisfied with the accord. Meanwhile, Mr. Karunanidhi told reporters that identification of seats for the Communist parties and the Indian Union Muslim League had also been completed. Both sides also promised to maintain secrecy about the agreement until constituencies for all parties are identified. Apart from Mr. Moily and Mr. Krishnasswamy, Union Ministers P. Chidambaram, G.K. Vasan and E.V.K.S. Elangovan and Congress Legislature Party leader S.R. Balasubramoniyan represented the Congress. On behalf of the DMK, Arcot N. Veerasamy, Durai Murugan, M.K. Stalin, and Veerapandi S. Arumugam, in addition to Union Ministers Dayanidhi Maran, A. Raja and Subbulakshmi Jegadeesan participated.

[Update] DMK chief Karunanidhi released the DPA constituencies list yesterday. Not many surprises in the list. The DMK will contest 11 out of 14 seats in Chennai leaving RK Nagar to Congress, Perambur (SC) to CPM and Saidapet to PMK. PMK was awarded most of its seats in its strong hold of the northern districts of Cuddalore, Vellore, Kancheepuram, and Villipuram. An important thing to note is that MK has awarded a good number of winnable seats to the left parties. So it looks like MK is bracing to form a minority government with outside support from the Left parties.

A Start!

2006-03-22T19:09:00.000-08:00

"Apart from the usual suspects, there are quite a few interesting parties in the fray in the upcoming assembly elections in Tamil Nadu. Apart from two new film stars, there is also a party by the name of Lok Paritran floated by ex-IIT graduates. Armed with their prestigious degrees, they have decided to say no to lucrative jobs and take the plunge into politics. "You see that your country doesn't have good governance. So what's the point of being in New York or some corporate job," said Tanmay Rajpurohit, Founder, Lok Paritran.

Founded by four former IITians, this fledgling party did not even have an office three weeks ago. Today, they have officially set up shop and receive a steady stream of interested participants. "Our ideology speaks about responsibilities as proportional to abilities. So people who understand that they have abilities, they should come forward," said Ajit Shukla, Founder, Lok Paritran. But what about the money and muscle power that is the hallmark of an Indian election? The party says they are seeking donations from people, especially NRIs who want to sponsor good governance. The young men at Lok Parithran believe that if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem. But that's exactly the apathy that these men have to fight - the apathy that makes everyone blame the system without doing anything about it."

Source: NDTV

Karat meets Karunanidhi

2006-03-19T01:45:00.000-08:00

CPI(M) chief Prakash Karat met with DMK chief and DPA head M Karunanidhi at the latter's Gopalapuram residence yesterday. After the meeting, Karat thanked Karunanidhi for including the Left parties in the DPA allies and giving them a sizeable number of seats. He expressed optimisim that the DMK led DPA would sweep the TN assembly elections just like the Lok Sabha elections a couple of years ago. However, he refused to comment on the Election Commission's action of removing Chennai Police Commissioner R Nataraj for violating the code of conduct. Meanwhile, Karunanidhi told the waiting reporters that identification of seats between the the parties in the DPA would be finalized soon and the candidates will be announced shortly thereafter.

Priyanka to contest?

2006-03-17T20:05:00.000-08:00

The Hindu reports that a section of the Congress party in Tamil Nadu has proposed the name of Priyanka Vadra, daugther of Congress chief Sonia Gandhi as a possible contestant from one of the constituencies in the Cuddalore district.

K.V. Elankeeran, Kattumannarkoil taluk Congress committee leader, submitted the application proposing her name for any of the constituencies in the district to the Cuddalore District Congress Committee (south) president Sachidanantham at Chidambaram, near here, on Thursday.
Mr. Elankeeran said that if Ms. Priyanka chose to contest in the district, the Congress would get rejuvenated.

I'm certain Ms. Vadra would turn down this offer. What say?

His last bow?

2006-03-17T09:44:00.000-08:00

[cross-posted in VKpedia]

Rajnikanth's decision to stay away from the political theatre this time around is probably his best move yet. The actor, who was once touted to be future Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, has now politely removed himself from the race. This offers an excellent study of the characteristics a leader requires, most of all, ruthlessness.

Ten years ago...

I remember that day (April/May 1996), and that televised speech vividly. My grandfather was in hospital, and I was at my cousins. There was buzz all round that Rajnikanth might appear on TV to support the then recently formed DMK-TMC alliance. And appear he did. Rajnikanth, who had just had the biggest hit of his life yet (Baasha), was the toast of Tamil Nadu, and people were certain that he would mince no words about the unpopular ADMK government. He didn't disappoint. The statement was made, and the DMK-TMC combine got a great boost. Not that they were on a sticky wicket before, but the support of a man of Rajni's charisma does sway many.

Subsequent Rajni movies were huge hits and were sprinkled with generous amounts of anti-JJisms. No one was in any doubt who the inspiration behind Neelambari in Padayappa was. Padayappa was then the biggest grosser in the history of Tamil cinema. That was the moment. He had to decide. He missed the moment.

Doubts, doubts and doubts

For all his studied pragmatism on-screen, Rajnikanth failed to carry it into his real life. "Will he? Won't he?" filled the air. Some said he would float a party and forge an alliance with the DMK. Others wished he would go it alone. Rajnikanth missed the boat at that moment. His doubts were compounded by the fact that the parties he placed faith in shifted alliances and allegiances at the drop of the hat.

The last blow came when the BJP and the DMK split, and Dr. Ramadoss' PMK aligned itself with the DMK. The BJP sided with the ADMK. Rajnikanth's friends were on either side, and in an uncalculated move, he released a statement that he would vote for the BJP, and that his supporters would work for the downfall of the PMK. Seasoned political watchers knew then that this man had gone to a point of no return. The BJP lost, and the DMK alliance romped home 40-nil.

What went wrong?

Rajnikanth became a victim of his own indecision. A man who spends 30 minutes of a two-and-a-half-hour movie deriding his political rivals would not be doing it just for fun. Thus, one cannot believe that he did things just to please his audience. There was a calculation behind his moves. Where he failed was to capitalise on the right moment to launch himself into the political arena.

In politics, survival demands a high degree of ruthlessness. As the strategists at Toyota will tell you, "Plan carefully, and implement rapidly." The plan was careful, but the implementation never happened. The iron wasn't struck when hot, and hence the man failed to strike gold!

Budding politicians should see a clear lesson in this. Charisma goes only half the way. It is like the business card. Unless it is backed by solid planning, flawless calculation and well-timed manoeuvres, it is of no use. It is sad that Rajnikanth, who might be one of the main characters in a book on Tamil cinema, will only be a forgotten footnote in a book on Tamil Nadu's politics.

Superstar is neutral!

2006-03-15T18:21:00.000-08:00

Superstar Rajinikanth will not issue any directive to his fans on the stand to be taken by them for the May 8 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. Rajikanth who is currently busy shooting for the film Shivaji has decided to remain neutral unlike the 1996 assembly elections when he openly came out in support of the DMK. A statement to this regard was issued by Rajnikant Fans Welfare Association President and a close associate of the actor, Satyanarayana. He also directed the association members not to use the actors name in connection with the polls. He warned that anyone violating these directives would be removed from the association.

Transferred!

2006-03-15T16:27:00.000-08:00

The Election Commision ordered the Tamil Nadu government to transfer Chennai Police Commissioner R Nataraj to a non-election post for violating the code of conduct that has come to effect with the announcement of the elections. Their action was as a result of a complaint received from DMK leader and Union Minister A Raja about an interview that Nataraj gave to a local newspaper praising TN Chief Minister Jayalalitha. He had reportedly said the law and order was best maintained in the state under the leadership of Jayalalithaa, and she was the best Chief Minister the state ever had. Looks like the EC is adopting a touch attitude to any violation of the code of conduct.

One more party in AIADMK team

2006-03-14T16:40:00.000-08:00

This news shouldn't come as a surprise to many. Yesterday, we had reported the news that TN unit of the AIFB had decided to go it alone in the assembly elections. Today, ADMK has decided to allot one seat to the AIFB's lone expelled MLA Santhanam. The seat sharing pact was signed by ADMK chief Jayalalitha and Santhanam earlier in the day. It looks like a clear snub to the AIFB headed by cine actor Karthik. It seems that Jayalalitha sees Santhanam's group as the real AIFB. Also Santhanam was one of the few MLA in the TN assembly who had consistently supported the ADMK.

[Thanks Vijay Krishna for this information]

Kannappan merges with DMK

2006-03-14T16:26:00.000-08:00

Former ADMK minister S. Kannapan merged his Makkal Thamizh Desam (MTD) party with the DMK. Welcoming Kannappan and his supporters to the DMK fold, Karunanidhi said that he was of the opinion that all Dravidian outfits had to be united to fight for social causes. Kannappan said that he and his supporters would work wholeheartedly for the achieving the ideals of the DMK. The primary aim now was to unseat the "anti-democratic and anti-people" government of the ADMK. It must also be noted that Kannapan wanted to merge his party with the ADMK during the last Lok Sabha elections. His party had adopted a resolution in this regard. But at the time, Jayalalitha didn't reciprocate his gesture. Now Kannapan has decided to join the DMK. Kannapan has a significant caste base (Yadavas). Although his party didn't win any seats in the last assembly elections as party of the DMK alliance it managed to poll about 40% votes in the seats it contested.

Source: The Hindu

Payback time?

2006-03-13T17:10:00.000-08:00

We all know fully well the tensions between PMK and superstar Rajinikanth ever since the release of the film Baba. At the time, Rajinikanth had vowed to teach them a lesson. Since then Rajinikanth and PMK leader Ramadoss have patched up. But somehow this hasn't been propagated to the ground. Yesterday, posters condemning PMK have sprung up in various parts of Coimbatore allegedly by the actor's fan club. The PMK local leaders urged the cadres to restrain themselves. A petition was submitted to the Coimbatore district Collector and the Police Commissioner urging them to take action against those who had stuck the posters. Security has been tightened and vigil is being maintained in the locality. One definitely can't rule out the possibility of opponents of the PMK using this to their advantage.

Go it alone!

2006-03-13T16:52:00.000-08:00

Amidst strong opposition among party cadres, the All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) has announced it decision to go it alone in the forth comming assembly elections. Just a few days back, AIFB leaders Debabrata Biswas and Karthik met with TN Chief Minister Jayalalitha to discuss seat sharing. It appears now talks have broken down between the two parties. Most of AIFB cadres were in favor of a tie-up with ADMK. After announcing the decision, cine actor Karthik told the waiting reporters that he too wished to have an alliance with the ADMK. But it looks like ADMK's refusal to allot them a satisfactory number of seats led them to this decision. In the last assembly elections AIFB won one seat. The lone AIFB MLA Santhanam has since been expelled from the party.

ADMK concludes Pondy seat sharing...

2006-03-11T11:02:00.000-08:00

ADMK chief and TN Chief Minister J Jayalalitha has concluded the seat sharing agreement for Pondicherry. The ADMK has 3 major allies in the Union Territory of Pondicherry. After concluding the seat sharing agreement, it was announced that ADMK will now contest 16 out of the 30 seats in Pondicherry. The breakdown of the number of seats contested by the allies in the ADMK front are as provided below. Looking at the numbers it certainly looks like ADMK will have to settle for a coalition government in Pondicherry in case their front wins a majority.

Total Seats - 30

ADMK - 16

PMC (Kannan) - 10

DPI - 2

MDMK - 2

Sibling Rivalry?

2006-03-11T07:22:00.000-08:00

Not until a few days ago the CPI leaders were jubilant at the outcome of the seat sharing agreement with the DMK. They were alloted 10 seats and that they taught was a good bargin. But, now having come to know that their ideological twin the CPI(M) have been allot 13 seats by DMK, the whole picture has dramatically changed. The CPI now feels that it has been short changed. Many leaders were miffed. To discuss the issue and to demand more seats from DMK, the members of the State Executive Council of the party met at Balan House which is the head office of the party's state wing.

Source: Newstodaynet

"Neither too much nor too Little"

2006-03-10T18:52:00.000-08:00

These were the words that were uttered by PMK chief Ramadoss after finalizing the seat sharing agreement with the DMK. The PMK was offered 31 seats to contest as part of the DMK alliance in the forth comming assembly elections. This agreement concludes seat sharing with all the major allies. The DMK is now left with 132 seats.

Total Seats - 234

DMK - 132 * (3 IUML)

Congress - 48

PMK - 31

CPM - 13

CPI- 10

Early IUML were alloted 3 seats, but they agreed to contest from the DMK symbol. MDMK's exit from the alliance has made it easy for the DMK to satisfy all the allies. The seats that the parties will contest will be decided within the next week.

Good will gesture?

2006-03-09T20:46:00.000-08:00

The DMK and the Congress finalized their seat sharing agreement yesterday. According to the agreement, the Congress party will contest in 48 constituencies for the TN assembly elections. This is two more than what the ADMK offered to the combined TMC and TNCC in the previous assembly elections. The announcement has certainly come as a surprise to many observers since this will virtually ensures that DMK will be able to contest in atmost 125 assembly seats. By this gesture, the DMK has created a good relationship with alliance partners and this could translate into good coordination among the allies during election time. But, having to contest in just 125 seats it looks like the DMK will not be able to win an outright majority. But, since the DMK is a major constituent of the UPA at the centre and its support is crucial, it can expect guaranteed outside support by the Congress for major part of its tenure if in the case of hung assembly and if the DMK falls just short of the absolute majority. But, all this just speculation.

Vaiko's switch - An Analysis

2006-03-08T18:37:00.000-08:00

I taught it would be a nice time for an analysis section today about Vaiko's switch from DPA to the ADMK alliance. The question I was asking myself for the few days is what prompted Vaiko make this switch. I believe the answer may lie with the fact that Vaiko for forced to take this decision for he feared otherwise his party will split. Most of his party leaders and cadres were against aligning with the DMK. They felt that the DMK was trying to undermine MDMK's presence in the state by offering a low number of seats. They point out that while MDMK's vote share in the state is more than the PMK, they were offered lower number of seats both in the last Lok Sabha elections and in the current Assembly elections. It must be remembered that Vaiko choose not to contest the last Lok Sabha elections because his party was offered only 4 seats and decided to let others in his party contest. Instead he choose to champaign for the allies in all the 40 seats. The DMK was also careful not to project Vaiko as a star campaigner. You would have noticed his coverage by Sun TV was very limited during the elections. But, Vaiko initially decided to stay with DPA for he was not willing to give up his pride by going with the ADMK. His family was also very insistent that he stay with DMK. But, when Vaiko realized that he could no longer be able to rein in his party, he finally gave in to pressure and put the party he build ahead of himself and decide to mend fences with his arch rival Jayalalitha. He may well know by now that his chances of taking over the DMK after Karunanidhi are virtually nil. This may well explain the rumors of him seeking a Raj Sabha seat for himself from the ADMK...

Not Perturbed!

2006-03-07T19:36:00.000-08:00

While Vaiko's exit took every one by storm at the three day DMK conference at Tiruchirapalli Conference, DMK heaved a huge sign of relief because of the massive gathering at the event. They were quite buoyant by the large number of women and youth who are typically considered to vote ADMK. DMK leaders also tried to put up a brave face by stating that MDMK's exit is a blessing in disguise because the DMK now will be able to satisfy all the allies by allotting seats close to their requested number. They believe that Vaiko summersault will cause him to loose credibility among the masses and it will result in a section of the MDMK vote bank to return to the parent party. However, all speakers were told to not mention about the episode during their speech. Most of their target was on the ruling ADMK. Congress president Sonia Gandhi was also present at the meeting. She asked the people to end the ADMK misrule.

1st seat sharing agreement!

2006-03-07T19:17:00.000-08:00

DMK reached a seat sharing agreement with CPI earlier today agreeing to allot 10 seats for the TN assembly elections. An agreement to this effect was signed by CPI leader Pandian and DMK chief Karunanidhi. CPI becomes the first ally to conclude seat sharing with DMK. Looks like MDMK exit helped DMK to increase the number of seats for CPI as the initial offer was not acceptable to them. DMK chief also told reporters that all seat sharing agreements are likely to be concluded in about 3 days time. According to sources, DMK is likely to offer Congress close to 50 seats, 28 seats for PMK and CPM is likely to get 10 seats with a few seats for lesser allies like IUML etc. The DMK hopes to contest in about 135 seats as they think this will help their chances to clinch an absolute majority.

A few more allies for ADMK

2006-03-05T10:55:00.000-08:00

"After working out an electoral pact with the MDMK, the AIADMK entered into a tie-up with the Indian National League (INL) and a splinter group of the Indian Union Muslim League for the May 8 Tamil Nadu Assembly polls. While INL has been allotted two seats, the IUML group has been given one seat, the parties said in separate statements. The agreement came after INL state president M Basheer Ahmed and IUML splinter group state secretary M G Dawood Miakhan met AIADMK supremo Jayalalithaa separately."

Source: ChennaiOnline

Captain to go it alone

2006-03-05T10:45:00.000-08:00

With every party eager to join one of the two major fronts in Tamil Nadu, Captain Vijaykanth's DMDK party will go it alone. Putting rumors to rest, Vijaykanth said that his party was determined to go it alone in the TN polls. He refused to comment about the MDMK pact with the ADMK by saying "We think only about ourselves and not about others". He also expressed confidence about the prospects of his new party in the forthcoming elections. So it looks for the moment that the Vijaykath seems more eager to pick up a few seats in the assembly and establish a vote bank for himself. But given the experiences of actors in politics in the last couple of decades that may well be a herculean task.

From "Anna" to "Amma" - An Andharbalti

2006-03-05T08:53:00.000-08:00

Well all of you might have known by now that MDMK has sealed an alliance with the ADMK. Vaiko met Jayalalitha at her Poes Garden residence yesterday afternoon and signed a seat sharing agreement with ADMK. According to the agreement, Vaiko's led MDMK will be allocated 35 seats. Coming out of the meeting, Vaiko told the waiting reporters that he was made to take this extreme step because he and his party men were "insulted" by the DMK for the past two years. He also seemed particularly angry at the DMK's offer of 22 seats. Chief Minister Jayalalitha told the waiting reporters that the ADMK and MDMK alliance would sweep the polls and the future looks bright for the alliance. The last few days have marked a dramatic change in the fortunes of the ADMK alliance. It looks more formidable now with the inclusion of DPI and MDMK. Both the parties complement the ADMK nicely. The former is strong in the northern TN and MDMK has an assured vote bank of 8000 votes in about 180 constituencies. More importantly Vaiko entrance to the alliance adds one more star campaigner. The battle now seems more equal with a slight edge to the DMK front. But all that could evaporate if ADMK and MDMK could mobilizes their cadre base effectively and work unitedly.

Breaking News...

2006-03-03T22:25:00.000-08:00

While the rumor mill in TN has been reporting for the last couple of days that Vaiko might switch alliance, I did not take them seriously. But today lending credence to this, newspapers and websites are reporting that Vaiko has decided to break from the DPA and instead back the ADMK in the TN assembly polls. This is quite a dramatic change of event in my opinion and a shot in the arm for the ADMK led alliance. While I have been mentioning in my analysis section last week that DPA is all set to capture power in the state, this event will seriously dent their chances. Vaiko is quite a formidable ally in my opinion because he not only bring a significant cadre base but also an excellent orator and a crowd puller. However, his credibility among the masses is likely to suffer because of this summersault. As I gather more information I will keep all of you updated.

[Thanks randramble for this information]

Election Dates Announced!

2006-03-02T17:00:00.000-08:00

"Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu will be held on May 8 as per the schedule announced by the Election Commission today for four poll-bound states and one Union Territory. While it will be a one-day polling in Tamil Nadu, polling will be staggered in the neighbouring Union Territory of Pondicherry. In the Union Territory, polling will take place on May 8 in 27 constituencies while in Mahe (adjoining Kerala), Yanam (adjoining Andhra Pradesh) and Palloor, it will be on May 3. Counting of votes in all the states will be taken up on May 11, Chief Election Commissioner B B Tandon told a press conference here while announcing the time table. The model of code of conduct comes into force immediately."

Source: Chennai Online

Saddend!

2006-03-02T16:35:00.000-08:00

PMK supremo S Ramadoss today said that he was saddened by DPI leader Thirumavalavan's decision to align with the AIADMK for the Tamil Nadu Assembly polls. "Neither DMK president M Karunanidhi nor me was against accommodating him in the DPA. But he went ahead with his decision to go with the AIADMK, which has surprised and saddened me," he told reporters at Tindivanam today. Ramadoss said he had discussed the issue of accommodating DPI in the DPA with Union Minister G K Vasan when he was the TNCC president.

Source: Chennai Online

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