How they stack up?

[Cross-posted in VKpedia]

The seat-sharing arrangement of the two major fronts is out. And it makes interesting reading, into the minds of the alliance leaders, that is.

Everywhere there is talk of coalitions in politics. The positives and the downsides of this have been argued ad nauseum, so I have nothing to add to it. Except that coalitions are here to stay. This is because politicians find it easy to divide territories along casteist lines. In the future, we might have political parties forged to protect the interests of micro-communities. So don't be surprised if there springs up a new party with the sole agenda of demanding equal rights for the "34th descendant of the late Shyama Sastry (1609 - 1658) of Needamangalam".

The DMK, as analysts point out, has allocated seats in such a way as to signify that it ackowledges its readiness for coalition politics. Contesting just 129 seats, the DMK needs to have a winning rate of 91.5% to form a government on its own. Many political watchers have termed this as yet another master-stroke by Mr. Karunanidhi. He has been generous in awarding seats to the coalition partners, more than what they might have expected themselves.

On the contrary, the ADMK is contesting 182 seats. One can easily discern two reasons behind this. First, the ADMK's coalition comprises of only one large party (the MDMK). The other parties have all been allotted only single-digit seats. Secondly, and this is more important, the ADMK supremo still believes that her party has enough in it to form a government on its own.

Some may claim that the ADMK's confidence is not well-founded. But one must not forget that Ms Jayalalithaa triumphed in the 2001 elections almost single-handedly. True, the opposition wasn't as formidable then, yet the ADMK did the improbable then. This year's fight is similar - it is the DPA's numbers against Ms Jayalalithaa's charisma. Who Which will triumph? We'll know in six weeks' time.

Priyanka to contest?

The Hindu reports that a section of the Congress party in Tamil Nadu has proposed the name of Priyanka Vadra, daugther of Congress chief Sonia Gandhi as a possible contestant from one of the constituencies in the Cuddalore district.

K.V. Elankeeran, Kattumannarkoil taluk Congress committee leader, submitted the application proposing her name for any of the constituencies in the district to the Cuddalore District Congress Committee (south) president Sachidanantham at Chidambaram, near here, on Thursday.

Mr. Elankeeran said that if Ms. Priyanka chose to contest in the district, the Congress would get rejuvenated.

I'm certain Ms. Vadra would turn down this offer. What say?

His last bow?

[cross-posted in VKpedia]

Rajnikanth's decision to stay away from the political theatre this time around is probably his best move yet. The actor, who was once touted to be future Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, has now politely removed himself from the race. This offers an excellent study of the characteristics a leader requires, most of all, ruthlessness.

Ten years ago...

I remember that day (April/May 1996), and that televised speech vividly. My grandfather was in hospital, and I was at my cousins. There was buzz all round that Rajnikanth might appear on TV to support the then recently formed DMK-TMC alliance. And appear he did. Rajnikanth, who had just had the biggest hit of his life yet (Baasha), was the toast of Tamil Nadu, and people were certain that he would mince no words about the unpopular ADMK government. He didn't disappoint. The statement was made, and the DMK-TMC combine got a great boost. Not that they were on a sticky wicket before, but the support of a man of Rajni's charisma does sway many.

Subsequent Rajni movies were huge hits and were sprinkled with generous amounts of anti-JJisms. No one was in any doubt who the inspiration behind Neelambari in Padayappa was. Padayappa was then the biggest grosser in the history of Tamil cinema. That was the moment. He had to decide. He missed the moment.

Doubts, doubts and doubts

For all his studied pragmatism on-screen, Rajnikanth failed to carry it into his real life. "Will he? Won't he?" filled the air. Some said he would float a party and forge an alliance with the DMK. Others wished he would go it alone. Rajnikanth missed the boat at that moment. His doubts were compounded by the fact that the parties he placed faith in shifted alliances and allegiances at the drop of the hat.

The last blow came when the BJP and the DMK split, and Dr. Ramadoss' PMK aligned itself with the DMK. The BJP sided with the ADMK. Rajnikanth's friends were on either side, and in an uncalculated move, he released a statement that he would vote for the BJP, and that his supporters would work for the downfall of the PMK. Seasoned political watchers knew then that this man had gone to a point of no return. The BJP lost, and the DMK alliance romped home 40-nil.

What went wrong?

Rajnikanth became a victim of his own indecision. A man who spends 30 minutes of a two-and-a-half-hour movie deriding his political rivals would not be doing it just for fun. Thus, one cannot believe that he did things just to please his audience. There was a calculation behind his moves. Where he failed was to capitalise on the right moment to launch himself into the political arena.

In politics, survival demands a high degree of ruthlessness. As the strategists at Toyota will tell you, "Plan carefully, and implement rapidly." The plan was careful, but the implementation never happened. The iron wasn't struck when hot, and hence the man failed to strike gold!

Budding politicians should see a clear lesson in this. Charisma goes only half the way. It is like the business card. Unless it is backed by solid planning, flawless calculation and well-timed manoeuvres, it is of no use. It is sad that Rajnikanth, who might be one of the main characters in a book on Tamil cinema, will only be a forgotten footnote in a book on Tamil Nadu's politics.