The Hindu, on Tamil Nadu

The Sunday edition of The Hindu carries an excellent analysis of the probable outcomes of the TN Assembly polls, by Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Kumar. Based on the findings of the Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll, the psephologists predict that "no one party is likely to get a majority on its own".

Whereas that may sound like deja vu (or deja entendu), the possible outcomes given vote swings makes interesting reading. It may be recalled that the Hindu-CNN-IBN poll gave the ADMK combine a vote share of 46% and the DMK combine 44%. Based on this, the former will win 118 seats and the latter 110. A simple 2% swing in favour of the ruling party would net it 40 more seats - a comfortable majority. An additional 2% swing (which, I think is unlikely) would mean an additional 30 seats.

On the other side, a swing of 2% in favour of the DMK and allies would sweep them into power with a tally of 146. And they can reach 170 with a 4% swing.

I think the Hindu-CNN-IBN poll was the earliest, and it might have not captured in full measure "the alleged wave" in favour of the DMK, after Kalaignar announced some pretty interesting sops and freebies. As it stands, one is tempted to think that the DMK is slightly ahead in this neck-and-neck race. However, given the fact that even small vote swings can alter the outcomes at the hustings, this race is, to borrow a term from psephologists themselves, "simply too close to call".