The Hindu, on Tamil Nadu

The Sunday edition of The Hindu carries an excellent analysis of the probable outcomes of the TN Assembly polls, by Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Kumar. Based on the findings of the Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll, the psephologists predict that "no one party is likely to get a majority on its own".

Whereas that may sound like deja vu (or deja entendu), the possible outcomes given vote swings makes interesting reading. It may be recalled that the Hindu-CNN-IBN poll gave the ADMK combine a vote share of 46% and the DMK combine 44%. Based on this, the former will win 118 seats and the latter 110. A simple 2% swing in favour of the ruling party would net it 40 more seats - a comfortable majority. An additional 2% swing (which, I think is unlikely) would mean an additional 30 seats.

On the other side, a swing of 2% in favour of the DMK and allies would sweep them into power with a tally of 146. And they can reach 170 with a 4% swing.

I think the Hindu-CNN-IBN poll was the earliest, and it might have not captured in full measure "the alleged wave" in favour of the DMK, after Kalaignar announced some pretty interesting sops and freebies. As it stands, one is tempted to think that the DMK is slightly ahead in this neck-and-neck race. However, given the fact that even small vote swings can alter the outcomes at the hustings, this race is, to borrow a term from psephologists themselves, "simply too close to call".

The Chief Ministerial Debates

Just a thought...

During the US Presidential elections, the two main candidates face off in three pre-election debates. This gives each candidate to explain his position and policies. The incumbent can defend his administration's actions, and extol his achievements, whereas the challenger can point out the shortcomings. The debates are televised and attract a huge audience, and offer the viewing public a chance to evaluate one candidate vis-a-vis the other.

I'm wondering why not we have such debates in India. Of course, the Parliamentary elections throw up a new candidate each time, so it may not be possible. But in a state like Tamil Nadu, where the hanging chads point one way or the other, a debate featuring the supremos of the two fronts is technically possible.

Recently, I had posted a campaign speech of the Finance Minister, Mr. P. Chidambaram, in which he had alleged that the Tamil Nadu Government had claimed very little of the actual money allocated by the Centre, but was it cribbing that funds were not allocated sufficiently. In response to this, a reader had questioned the timing of this allegation, asking why the FM had not responded to the State Govt's accusation, and why he chose the campaign plank to rake up the issue. If the Government and the Opposition (or their respective leaders) could indulge in an open televised debate outside the Assembly, such allegations can be sorted out.

The point here is that while each leader reels off accusations, the other parties need not respond to those accusations directly. This would, however, be necessary in a live debate. Without doubt, the leaders of the two fronts, Ms Jayalalithaa and Mr Karunanidhi are the tallest campaigners in the state. A live face-off between the two off them? Just the thought is mouth-watering!

49-O - the right to not vote

Over the past few weeks, 49-O has been in the lips of many. The concept of casting a null vote, though being publicised now, is not a new one. The Election Commission of India's website reveals that such a thing has been in existence since 1961.

Here is the procedure. Suppose you decide not to vote for any of the candidates in the fray, you can visit your polling station, and when your turn comes, you can walk up to the election official stating your intent to cast a null vote. You have to fill out a form and sign the register. And walk out!

The relevant section of the EC's Guide for Voters (PDF link) is as follows:

The homepage of the Election Commission has many more informative documents, that are worth a perusal.

On the campaign trail: Vijaya T Rajendar

Given the nicknames he has been given, with regard to his hairstyle, Vijaya T Rajendar (formerly T Rajendar), I must have named this article as On the campaign prowl. Sun News carried a live campaign speech of TR, which I watched only for a short while. The rhyming dialogues were there. Here's one...

Vaiko, nee DMK-va suththi irundha naagam Kalaignar kaaladiye nee oru kaagam (something ending with sogam, dhaagam, yogam etc.)

Vijay Ramachandran was more fortunate, and he's put up an impressive list of dialogues (link) from TR's speech.

Vaiko Nee Oru Psycho Nee Engayavadhu Poyiko Mothathila nee oru poi(lie)ko Jayalalitha romba adamantu Mudinja nee (Vaiko) vitu paaru statementu Mudiyadhu, en endral adhu avanga judgementu (not to give Vaiko a seat) Adhu dhan neenga potta agreementu Vechukaadha nee en kita vambu En payan peru Simbu Villu ku theva ambu Vaanam Vasapadum, adha thoda embu Kalaignar a nee ennikum nambu.. Naan vaazhndhadhu illa thanmanatha vithu En endral suyamariyadha enoda sothu Silambarasan na pethedutha muthu Avan nadicha padam peru 'Kuthu' Udaya Suriyan chinnatha paathu paathu nee vote a kuthu!!!

Well, TR is DMK's answer to the bevy of stars on the other front!

"Sattre vilagi irum, pillaai"

On the campaign trail from the DMK-led alliance, the Congress' number one campaigner, P Chidambaram was at his trailblazing best in his just-concluded speech in Cuddalore. The Finance Minister reeled out statistics to rubbish the TN Government's claims that the Centre was least helpful when calamity struck the state.

Mr. Chidambaram stated that a sum of Rs. 5025 crores had been allocated for the state, of which a major portion still remains unclaimed. For example, the State Government was to have claimed reimbursements for houses built for tsunami victims. Yet, not a penny has been claimed so far. The FM opined that this implied that the Jayalalithaa government hadn't built a single house to rehabilitate a single victim.

Quoting from Gopalakrishna Bharati's Nandanaar Charitram, the FM had just four words for the incumbents -- sattre vilagi irum, pillaai! (According to Nandanaar Charitram, Nandanaar, a person born of a low caste, was refused admission into a Siva temple. Overcome with grief, he stood outside the shrine to catch a glimpse of Lord Siva. However his view was obstructed by the Nandi, and Nandanaar sang, requesting to Nandi to stay aside to help him get an unobstructed view.) Mr. Chidambaram mentioned that Amma's government was like a Nandi which obstructed the implementation of any good plans formulated for Tamil Nadu at the Centre.

He also questioned the logic behind the ADMK's promise of 10 kilos of free rice, and wondered how Mr. Vaiko who threw tantrums at the DMK's election promise of rice at Rs 2 per kg, suddenly found logic in the ADMK's claims.

The Jayendra factor

In general, the ADMK garners the lions' share of Brahmin votes (i.e. if the BJP isn't in the fray). The DMK doesn't do too well with them, for obvious reasons. However in the upcoming elections, the ADMK should find itself no better placed than any other party in winning votes from this community.

The reason? The incarceration of the head of the Kanchi mutt, Jayendra Saraswati. Across the Hindu community, opinion has been divided as to whether the Government was right in sending the pontiff to jail. Despite the divided opinion, most people believe that this was an act of vendetta on the part of the Government. And this doesn't augur well of the ADMK.

In a constituency like Mylapore, which has a predominant Brahmin population, the ADMK would not find the going that easy. Jayendra's arrest being on the major events during Amma's rule, it would weigh heavily on the voter's mind.

Probably the ADMK is now thinking, it would have been better had they kept politics out of religion, for now, they are finding it tough to keep religion out of politics...

STAR WARS in Mylapore

With the elections in mind, Rediff.com has launched Citizen Election Reporter, through which citizens can share their views on the elections in the states that go to polls. Here's a piece I submitted today:

The quiet, residential locality of Mylapore is steeped in the history of Chennai. Mentions of Mylapore bring to mind the majestic Kapaleeswara temple, the famous Chitrakulam tank, the Santhome Church which is close by, and even the Dabba Chetty Stores, which is part of the city's heritage.

Mylapore will witness a star-studded fight in the upcoming elections. The ADMK has fielded S.Ve. Sekar, the veteran comedian, who has ruled the Tamil drama scene with his popular dramas. The DMK has allotted the constituency to Napoleon, the lanky hero who now represents the Villivakkam constituency (also in Chennai).

Chennai has traditionally been a bastion of the DMK, but S.Ve. Sekar will be hoping to buck that trend in these elections. Two factors are in his favour. Firstly, S.Ve. Sekar needs no introduction at all. The same goes for Napoleon too, but the former is definitely the more popular of the two. Secondly, Mylapore is a predominantly Hindu residential area, so S.Ve. Sekar should be able to cash in on the Hindu vote.

Also, the voters in Mylapore might wonder why Napoleon has been shifted from the Villivakkam constituency to their's. Indeed, there are some rumours floating around that Napoleon is not very popular in his current constituency, and his chances of re-election from there are not bright. However, he is known to be a fiery speaker, and can woo the masses. On the contrary, S.Ve. Sekar laces comedy even into his election speeches.

Whoever wins, Mylapore will be one of the constituencies to watch. The stars are in action, and it is heating up!

[Update] CNN-IBN video [Thanks Kaps for the information]

ADMK goes online

The New York Times of yesterday carries an interesting article detailing how both the Republicans and the Democrats are discovering the utility of the Internet as a campaigning medium. Adam Nagourney writes:

Democrats and Republicans are sharply increasing their use of e-mail, interactive Web sites, candidate and party blogs, and text-messaging to raise money, organize get-out-the-vote efforts and assemble crowds for a rallies. The Internet, they said, appears to be far more efficient, and less costly, than the traditional tools of politics, notably door knocking and telephone banks. Those include Podcasts featuring a daily downloaded message from a candidate and so-called viral attack videos, designed to trigger peer-to-peer distribution by e-mail chains, without being associated with any candidate or campaign. Campaigns are now studying popular Internet social networks, like Friendster and Facebook, as ways to reaching groups of potential supporters with similar political views or cultural interests.

Further, the article quotes from a survey by the Pew Research Center, that the number of Americans who went online for election news jumped from 13% in 2002 to 29% in 2004. Surely, even politicians don't want to be behind in the digital revolution. India, though is a different story altogether. I think we are still a long way away from influencing voters through the Internet. In our country, what works is the crowds that one can draw along the way. That explains why all the main campaigners in Tamil Nadu have hit the road already. So when I came to know that the ADMK had launched a campaign website, it came as a surprise to me. However, the site itself (ElectADMK.com) is like a breath of fresh air. The design is simple and elegant, and the content has been organised reasonably well. There is even a registration form, probably for sending out emails during the run-up. The one thing I would have liked is a clickable list of candidates, which would give the profile of each candidate. Secondly, the site is very much Amma-centric, which however is not very surprising. Anyway, the site is good and is worth a few clicks... even if you are voting for the ADMK.